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The moderate tropical storm Filipo, which is nearing the coast of southern Mozambique, is expected to also affect the extreme north-east parts of South Africa.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) said the weak, embryonic tropical low-pressure system experienced significant intensification overnight on Sunday.
According to the weather service, the storm is expected to affect mostly the southern parts of Mozambique, but some of its effects will also be felt over the extreme north-eastern parts of South Africa.
“It is estimated that Filipo will make landfall this evening on the Mozambican coast at or near Inhassoro, north of Vilankulos, having further intensified to a ‘Severe Tropical Storm’, associated with average winds between 89 and 118 km/h.”
“Therefore, for much of the southern Mozambican coastline, a high risk exists for weather-related damage from a combination of torrential rain, strong, damaging winds (with wind gusts well more than 100 km/h), as well as storm surges near the coastline.”
For South Africa, Saws said deterministic NWP modelling from a number of sources has produced high-confidence guidance indicating that most of the heavy rain, at least for Monday and Tuesday, will stay confined to southern Mozambique.
Despite this, there is a moderate to high chance that Tuesday and Wednesday will see extremely heavy rainfall across the lowveld regions of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, respectively.
For Mpumalanga, there is a chance of orographically enhanced rainfall along the eastern Escarpment region on Wednesday. Localised flooding and heavy rain are possible over the neighbouring Kingdom of Eswatini, the southern Lowveld (which includes the Kruger National Park), and the extreme northeastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
The Olifants, Letaba, Sabie, and Sand rivers, as well as the Crocodile River in the far south of Kruger National Park (KNP), are among the major rivers that are projected to flow quite forcefully, probably in flood, starting midweek.
Similarly, a stretch of prolonged, exceptionally heavy rainfall is predicted on Wednesday in the northeastern region of KwaZulu-Natal, particularly along the coast and in the nearby hinterland north of Richards Bay.
By Thursday, the intense rain will stop completely as the system passes east of South Africa, out of southern Africa, and into the southern Indian Ocean.
“The Saws will continue to monitor any further developments relating to this weather system and will issue subsequent updates as required.”
The South African Weather Service (Saws) also released its latest weather forecast for Tuesday, 12 March.
The weather service has warned of severe thunderstorms, flooding, and heatwave conditions in numerous provinces. Here’s what you need to know.
The weather service issued a yellow level 1 warning that severe thunderstorms are expected to result in damaging hail and strong winds in places over the eastern interior of the Eastern Cape and a yellow level 1 warning of damaging winds and waves expected to result in difficulty in navigation and small vessels taking on water between Port Alfred and Port Edward from early morning.
A yellow level 4 warning for disruptive rainfall leading to flooding roads and settlements, difficult driving on dirt roads, damage to infrastructure, and mud-based houses is expected over the north-eastern parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the lowveld regions of Limpopo and Mpumalanga from Wednesday morning.
Saws also issued an orange level 6 warning for disruptive rainfall leading to flooding roads and settlements, difficult driving on dirt roads, damage to infrastructure, and mud-based houses over Umkhanyakhude District Municipality, uPhongolo, Nongoma, and uMfolozi local municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the Nkomazi Local Municipality (southern lowveld) in Mpumalanga from Wednesday morning.
Extremely high fire danger conditions are expected in places over the Northern Cape and western parts of the Free State, as well as over the Khai-Ma and Hantam municipalities over the Northern Cape.
Heatwave conditions with persistently high temperatures are expected over the North West, Free State, Gauteng provinces, eastern parts of the Northern Cape, central and eastern interior of the Eastern Cape, as well as the south-western Bushveld of Limpopo, until Tuesday, but will persist into Wednesday in Gauteng.
Extremely hot and uncomfortable conditions are also expected in places in the Namakwa District of the Northern Cape, the West Coast District, and the interior of the Western Cape, as well as in places in the Eastern Cape.
Here’s what to expect in your province on Tuesday, 12 March
Gauteng:
Residents of Gauteng can anticipate partly cloudy and hot conditions but very hot in the north.
The region’s expected UVB sunburn index is “extreme.”
Residents should take the necessary precautions against prolonged sun exposure.
Mpumalanga:
Mpumalanga residents can expect cloudy and warm weather in the east, with morning fog patches on the highveld; otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm, with isolated showers and thundershowers along the escarpment but scattered in the lowveld.
Limpopo:
The day will be cloudy in the east, with scattered showers and thundershowers; otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm to hot.
North-West province:
A day of fine and hot to very hot weather, becoming partly cloudy in the west, awaits North West residents with isolated showers and thundershowers.
Free State:
Residents of the Free State will see fine and hot to very hot conditions, becoming partly cloudy in the west and central parts with isolated showers and thundershowers.
Northern Cape:
There will be fine and hot to very hot weather, but extremely hot in places over the northern parts. It will become partly cloudy in the afternoon over the eastern parts, where isolated showers and thundershowers are expected.
Western Cape:
Western Cape residents can expect cloudy and foggy conditions along the coastal areas in the morning, where it will be cool; otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm to hot over the interior. It will be very hot over the north-eastern parts, with light rain expected along the eastern parts of the south coast in the evening.
Eastern Cape (western half):
Fog patches are expected in places in the south at first, otherwise partly cloudy and hot to very hot with isolated afternoon thunderstorms in places, but warm along the coast. It will become cloudy and windy in the south, with isolated showers in places mainly in the south-east.
Eastern Cape (eastern half):
Residents can look forward to fog patches in places south of the escarpment at first, otherwise fine and hot to very hot, but extremely hot in places. It will become partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers and thundershowers in the afternoon, but scattered in the extreme north-east.
KwaZulu-Natal:
Residents of KwaZulu-Natal can look forward to morning fog patches over the interior, otherwise partly cloudy and warm to hot with isolated showers and thundershowers in the extreme south-west and north-eastern parts.
The region’s expected UVB sunburn index is “very high.”
Residents should take the necessary precautions against prolonged sun exposure.
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