Tropical storm Filipo to miss most of SA, rainfall possible

Tropical storm Filipo is likely to bring some rain, but not enough and not in the right places.

South African Weather Service forecaster Kevin Rae said Filipo, which is nearing the coast of southern Mozambique, was expected to affect extreme northeast South Africa.

“Moderate tropical storm Filipo is expected to affect mostly the southern parts of Mozambique, with some of its effects to be experienced over the extreme northeastern parts of South Africa,” he said.

Rae said because a tropical low-pressure system was usually wetter and warmer than the surrounding air, it could cause the formation of clouds and storms.

Bulk rain will remain in southern Mozambique

“For South Africa in particular, various sources of deterministic numerical weather prediction modelling have provided high confidence guidance to suggest that the bulk of the heavy rain, at least for today and tomorrow, will remain constrained to southern Mozambique.

“There is a moderate to high risk of heavy rainfall occurring over the lowveld regions of Limpopo on Tuesday and over the lowveld of Mpumalanga on Wednesday.

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“For Mpumalanga especially, there is a risk of orographically enhanced rainfall along the eastern escarpment region, when heavy rain and localised flooding may occur over the southern lowveld, including the Kruger National Park, eSwatini as well as extreme northeastern KwaZulu-Natal,” he said.

Rae said the major rivers of the central and southern half of the Kruger National Park (KNP), such as the Olifants, Letaba, Sabie and Sand Rivers, as well as the Crocodile River in the extreme south of KNP, were likely to be flowing very strongly, possibly in flood, from midweek onwards.

“Similarly, the northeastern extremity of KZN, especially the coast and adjacent interior northwards of Richards Bay, can expect a spell of sustained, extremely heavy rainfall on Wednesday which will cease abruptly by Thursday, as the system leaves southern Africa and moves off into the southern Indian Ocean, east of South Africa,” Rae said.

KNP might not be affected

SA National Parks spokesperson Ike Phaahla said early indications were that the KNP might not be affected by the storm.

“However, our emergency management teams are on high alert and following developments,” he said.

Phaahla said they managed to repair all the damage caused by storm Eloise in January 2021, which left several main roads damaged and flooded while camps were evacuated.

ALSO READ: Tropical Storm Filipo nears Mozambique, threatening SA – thunderstorms, flooding and heatwave also expected

Vox weather forecaster Annette Botha said the storm will miss the interior.

“A tropical low-pressure system can be defined as a less dense air mass that is usually wetter and warmer than the surrounding air. Such storms moving into the Mozambique Channel like Filipo can channel the moisture that usually moves over eastern SA over Mozambique and could play a role in drier conditions over South Africa’s summer rainfall region.”

‘It’s so dry’

TLU chair Benny van Zyl said the clouds were gathering in the north and northeast of the country.

“But it has not yet started to rain. It’s so dry, we really need the rain with the heat wave,” he said.

Van Zyl said grain farmers have already suffered a lot of damage from the heat, with plants being killed off.

“There is also insufficient grass growth for grazing and this is a potential problem for feeding the animals in the coming winter. We urgently need good rain over large parts of our country.”

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