Time to get ready for El Niño: UN warns of raising global temperatures

The United Nations (UN) has warned that the weather phenomenon El Niño will develop in the coming months, fuelling higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation said it has estimated that there was a 60% chance that El Niño would develop by the end of July, and an 80% chance that it would do so by the end of September.

The Weekend Witness spoke to climate change and food systems expert from UKZN, Professor Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi on El Niño conditions and the effects that El Niño might have on Kwa-Zulu Natal.

Professor Mabhaudhi, said according to the World Meteorological Organisation, El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (Enso) is a naturally occurring phenomenon influencing climate patterns in several global regions.

What is El Niño and what are the impacts of it?
“El Niño is the warm, dry phase of Enso. It develops due to the warming of surface coastal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian coast that disturbs the normal atmospheric circulation globally,” said Professor Mabhaudhi.

While droughts are a feature of South Africa’s climate, El Niño worsens drought conditions, often causing meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought, depending on how long the cycle persists.
He added that these various types of droughts have different impacts and progress differently in time and space.

“In the immediate term, low rainfall and high-temperatures cause meteorological drought. This can translate to agricultural drought if crops and livestock become water- and heat-stressed, leading to reduced yields, crop failure and livestock losses.

“Hydrological drought is a slower process that results when water supply levels gradually decline below normal (e.g., when Cape Town faced Day Zero).

“Socioeconomic drought leads to food insecurity, increased hunger, and poverty (e.g., the 2015/16 food crises). Because El Niño events are often associated with drought, they can be marked as one of the cyclic contributors to food insecurity and poverty in South Africa.”

Some of the other things citizens could be on the lookout for are:
• Food shortages and increased demand can lead to hikes in food prices;
• Increased poverty and hunger, especially among smallholder and subsistence farmers, and low-income groups;
• Low water supply if dam levels drop below normal;
• Soil erosion, bush encroachment, and land degradation in rangelands;
• Increased prevalence of wildfires.

Professor Mabhaudhi said experts predict that the 2023-2024 El Niño might break global heat records.

“We cannot tell exactly how this will affect South Africa specifically. However, based on historical trends, South Africa can start preparing for extreme heat, wildfires, low rainfall and possible drought.”

Speaking on preventative measures or preparing ourselves for the El Niño conditions, Professor Mabhaudhi said the country must invest in early action and preparedness measures, as well as invest in designing and implementing community-based early warnings to reduce the impact of El Niño on vulnerable populations in high-risk areas, such as rural populations with limited water resources and necessary infrastructure.

He said El Niño typically re-occurs every three to five years, lasting for about nine to 12 months; therefore, it is possible to plan ahead.

“Communities and households can also invest in rainwater harvesting and storage to mitigate the shock during extreme water shortages.

“Farming communities must diversify their farming practices by practising soil water conservation practices, planting drought and heat-stress-tolerant crops, diversifying their cropping systems to mitigate the risk of crop failure, and improving rangeland management to mitigate the risk of wildfires,” said Professor Mabhaudhi.”

He added that Kwa-Zulu Natal is usually one of the worst-affected provinces in South Africa, saying that the province was declared a disaster zone during the 2015-2016 El Niño period.

“Most people probably remember this period as it was historically one of the strongest El Niño events. The 2015-2016 El Niño event led to one of the strongest drought events in southern Africa, pushing millions into hunger. This El Niño event reduced crop production, caused an exponential decrease in participation in agricultural activities, displaced planting and led to water insecurity, especially in marginalised communities.”

He said KwaZulu-Natal was not spared from this devastation as it is predominantly a rural province, with many people depending on agriculture for food and livelihood.