Cyclone Ana: Heavy rain to lash parts of Limpopo

Polokwane can prepare for a rainy weekend ahead, as Cyclone Ana loses power and moves over the interior past the border.

South African Weather Service forecaster Elizabeth Viljoen said the tropical low-pressure storm Ana had developed on 20 January, in the far eastern parts of the southwest Indian Ocean basin.

Cyclone Ana update

South Africa still safe

The storm made landfall in Angoche in Mozambique on Monday.

“While Ana has weakened significantly due to friction from the landmass, as well as the loss of moisture, heavy rain has already caused havoc over central Mozambique and southern Malawi,” she said.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, storm Ana comes less than a year after Cyclone Idai in March last year.

In 2019, Cyclone Kenneth moved through Northern Mozambique leaving a path of destruction.

South African Weather Service forecaster Wayne Venter said no weather warnings had been issued for Polokwane yet.

Effects of storm in Limpopo

Venter said the rain band from Ana moved in over the northern and easter parts of Limpopo yesterday.

“This will bring several showers that will last until the weekend between the northern and eastern parts of the province, such as in the Lowveld and Limpopo valley part,” he said.

Between 30mm and 60mm rainfall was forecast for the area for the rest of the week. Venter said it was normal for this region to get rain from tropical storms.

“The rain should clear up by the end of the weekend,” he said. Venter said more than 200mm of rainfall had been recorded in Mozambique in the past 48 hours.

“In the last 24 hours the highest was at Chinoio, recording 103mm,” he said.

South Africa’s rainfall pattern

A trained scientist specialising in water resource management, Professor Anthony Turton, said South Africa was possibly seeing a seasonal shift towards a wetter than average period.

Turton said a high-confidence study in 2018, conducted by the University of Cape Town, looked at rainfall patterns from 1950 until 2012, and found that before 1982 South Africa had a wetter average period than after 1982.

“From 1982 onwards there had been a seasonal shift in rainfall,” he said.

Catastrophic floods

Turton said the current shift would mean rain that would have fallen in spring and grown the mealies has shifted to another time of the year.

“So what use to be an early September rain, now becomes a December/January rainfall, which means it is too late for the mealies,” he said.

“South Africa was in an unusual situation, where 90% of our dams are full. Currently, we are sitting with flooded farms and cattle washing away,” he added.

Turton said floods were more catastrophic for farms than for the dams.

“From an engineering perspective, the dams were solid if maintained,” he said. He warned operation and maintenance of dams might still be of concern.

Cyclone Ana’s impact on Malawi

On 26 January, the President of the Republic of Malawi, Dr Lazaurs McCarthy Chakwera, implemented a state of disaster in accordance with Section 32(1) of the Disaster Preparedness and Relief Act of 1991.

This after floods and heavy rains brought about by cyclone Ana affected the districts of Nsanje, Chikwawa, Phalombe, Zomba, Blantyre, Chiradzulu, Thyolo, Mulanje, Balaka, Machinga, Mangochi, Neno, Mwanza, Mchinji, and Dedza.

Nearly 50,000 households – approximately 216,972 people – have been displaced and 10 people have lost their lives, while 107 sustained severe injuries.

Thousands of hectares of crops have been damaged during the storms; livestock washed away and infrastructure such as roads and bridges were damaged.

An assessment of the scope of the damage will be carried out in due course.

Additional reporting by Cheryl Kahla.