Weather warnings: How accurate are Saws’ climate data measurements?

Weather watchers can rely on predictions with a high level of certainty, parliament has heard.

The South Africa Weather Service (Saws) on Tuesday updated the portfolio committee on environment, forestry and fisheries on its first and second quarter performances for the 2024/25 financial year.

The reports focused on a six-month period covering the winter months, during which Saws achieved just over 80% of their targets for the two quarters.

Accurate weather data

Saws reported back on four key metrics covering 11 categories, where it was successful in all but two areas.   

On warnings, alerts and advisories, Saws stated a 99% availability of the national weather forecast, a 99% accuracy of warnings in areas around airports and a 98% accuracy of weather reports around coastal ports.

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In gathering climate data, Saws was set a target of 85%, and it overachieved with 93% for the first quarter and 94% for the second.  

Saws attributed this to “constant engagements with responsible and contributing business units, inclusive of regional offices, on challenges in effective data transmission to the database”.

Saws is obligated to monitor the prevalence of greenhouse gasses, where it recorded a 94% and 93% completion rate across the two quarters.

“Despite challenges with Ozone sonde soundings, there was optimal performance of the Regional Global Atmosphere Watch programme and laboratory instruments of the Cape Point Global Atmosphere Watch programme,” Saws confirmed.

Air quality measurements at 60%

An area where Saws fell short during both quarters was the accuracy of its Priority Areas Air Quality Stations.  

The target was to have 80% of the stations meeting minimum data requirements; however, Saws could only manage 60% between March and June last year and 67% the following quarter.

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Air quality stations measure the concentration of pollutants in the air, help inform public health and environmental policy, and monitor potentially harmful industrial zones.

Additionally, Saws fell over R1 million short of its quarterly revenue generation target of R7.2 million.

Saws stated this was due to an annual drop in demand for climate data during the winter months.

“Revenue from information fees is also behind budget due to less active weather in the winter seasons,” stated Saws.

Saws expenditure

Saws’ total expenditure over the six-month period was R280 million, with R149 million of that going to staff salaries.

The budget for consultancy fees is well in excess of that of the research department, with R2.7 million spent on consultants and roughly R70 000 spent on research.

“The saving of R430 000 against the budget of R499 000 is due to fewer activities being undertaken by the research department,” Saws explained.

Other notable expenses include R13 million spent on travel, R1.4 million on vehicle expenses and almost R2 million on the medical expenses of retired staff members.

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