Trump’s tough stance on SA could be a negotiation tactic

US President Donald Trump’s threats against South Africa and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision to boycott the upcoming G20 foreign minister’s meeting here could be deal-making tactics, an expert says.

Trump is a deal-maker who uses carrots and sticks to get his way. But in the case of SA, Trump could be playing the deal-making game before bringing out the sticks, according to international relations expert Dr Jan Venter from North-West University.

Venter said Trump was unhappy that SA was aligned with Russia and China while getting financial support from the US.

Trump unhappy SA aligned with Russia and China with US aid

Rubio has said he will not attend the G20 gathering of foreign ministers because of SA’s land expropriation law and anti-Americanism.

He said on X: “South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote ‘solidarity, equality & sustainability’. In other words: diversity, equity and inclusion and climate change.

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“My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle antiAmericanism.”

He echoed Trump’s words recently when he criticised the Expropriation Act.

Venter said Trump was intent on punishing SA because of its close ties with Russia and China. He said Pretoria cannot align with these two countries and expect assistance from the US.

He is punishing SA

“If you look at Trump’s style of leadership, it’s extremely brash and radical, but he is also a transactionalist.

“He would always like to make a deal and to see that deal look good for America. It might also happen that the deal would look good for SA,” Venter said.

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If President Cyril Ramaphosa fails to make a deal with Trump, the US funding line to SA was in trouble. Europe could follow the US’ lead.

“There is a possibility the money flow to SA might stop. That is a worst-case scenario. With Trump not showing up at the G20, it would be an extremely open public slap in the face of SA that would indicate a huge rift.

“But it could still be part of the process of deal-making for Trump.

Could be process of deal-making

“In the political environment, you have carrots, which is the stuff that nations want. But Trump, at the moment, is only working with sticks. He hasn’t shown carrots to anybody,” Venter said.

Political economy analyst Zamikhaya Maseti believed US absence from the G20 in SA this year will not impact the multilateral body’s work, as long as other influential Western players attend.

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The existence of alternative multilateral platforms away from the scope of Western influence, such as Brics, are undermining US hegemony worldwide, he said.

“Within a week after being sworn in as president, Trump distorted the geopolitics. He is taking advantage of the fact that the US influence is stronger in the West and that so far, US imperial hegemony had been unbreakable.

“But there is a counter-multilateral movement emerging through Brics. US absence from the G20 will not be a big deal because there are other important players such as the UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, China and others in the G20,” Maseti said.

US absence from G20 won’t be big deal

He said Trump and Rubio were ill-informed about the land reform process in South Africa.

Trump ignored the fact that blacks, who are the majority, owned a mere 4% of land while the white minority owned at least 72%, he added.

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