Third wave of Covid infections appears to have bounced back

After it looked like subsiding, the third wave of Covid infections appears to have bounced back significantly in the past few days – and worried experts are monitoring the spike.

Numbers jumped within days of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement of the easing of lockdown restrictions – but also after what could have been a coronavirus incubation period following unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.

Gauteng daily cases reportedly jumped to 5 204 on Wednesday from 2 324 the previous day, but dropped back slightly to 3 655 yesterday – and in the Western Cape, there was a record new daily number of 4 667, which dropped to 3 968 yesterday.

Nationwide, cases showed a slight drop to 13,751 last night.

The South African Medical Research Council’s chief executive officer, Professor Glenda Gray, said an increase had been noted from Wednesday.

“I think we need to observe what is happening over the next three days to determine if this is real or spurious,” she said.

Professor Ian Sanne, a member of the Covid ministerial advisory committee, said they will have to review a seven-day rolling average to determine if there was another peak in the third wave.

“We don’t respond to an increase in a single day, only to a trend in the seven-day rolling average. It falls under the category of increased concerned to watch, so it’s on our watch list,” he said.

Dr Michelle Groome from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) said the higher daily case numbers released on a Wednesday through Saturday compared to Sunday through Tuesday was mainly due to increased demand for testing during weekdays compared to weekends.

“The seven-day moving average of daily case numbers gives us a better picture and this has been decreasing,” Groome said.

She said national trends do not always adequately reflect what is happening at the provincial level.

“Thus far, the third wave has been largely driven by the number of cases in Gauteng and as cases decrease in Gauteng, we are seeing a decrease in cases at a national level. But some provinces are still seeing sustained or increasing case numbers,” Groome said.

She said it was unlikely that the impact of the move from adjusted level 4 to adjusted level 3 was being reflected already.

“The recent civil unrest definitely posed a risk for increased transmission in KwaZulu-Natal and affected areas in Gauteng; and we are closely monitoring this at provincial, district, and subdistrict level to identify potential hotspots,” she said.

Dr Erich Bock, regional director of Gauteng North East Region Netcare group, said there has been a 30% drop of Covid admissions to their hospitals in certain parts of the Gauteng south west region.

“When it comes to hospitalisations, particularly in our general wards, we have definitely seen a stabilisation as well as a decrease in our Covid inpatient numbers over the past seven days,” he said.

DA Gauteng health spokesperson Jack Bloom said despite hospitalisations in Gauteng dropping substantially, the figures were still higher than the peak of the other two waves.

He said the latest figures for hospitalisations of 7 338 already dropped by 2 000 compared to the maximum figure of 9 208 on 14 July.

Bloom said the disruption of tests also plays a role in the recording of daily figures. Various site in Gauteng were disrupted for two days during the unrest.

“We are not out of the woods. We will get a fourth wave. There is a time period between the waves – normally three months,” he said.

Hopefully the fourth wave would be less severe due to the vaccinations.

– marizkac@citizen.co.za