Predictions of ANC’s demise ahead of elections ‘too premature’

Predictions that next year’s general elections will be the end of the ANC as a governing party are far too premature, political analysts have warned.

In fact, they believe, even though it seems the ANC is already crumbling as the debate around the party finally dissolving continues, they’ve managed to ride out similar storms in the past.

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Infighting has once again played out in public – from former president Jacob Zuma declaring his refusal to vote or campaign for the ANC in the 2024 elections and pledging his support for the newly registered party, uMkhonto weSizwe, to respected struggle veteran Mavuso Msimang retracting his resignation and even former president Thabo Mbeki noting the ANC was led by “greedy, corrupt, criminals”.

Then the Economic Freedom Fighter’s (EFF) Fana Mokoena, a former member of the ANC and the National Assembly, said on social media platform X yesterday: “The ANC is finally dead. Most of their members are in denial, but the intelligent ones have reconciled with what’s facing them. The ANC is finally finished.”

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In August, Mbeki said unless the ANC renewed itself, he was not prepared to campaign for the party ahead of the elections.

“When you say I must go campaigning next year, to tell people to vote ANC, how am I going to do that when I know very well that the branch of the ANC in this constituency is led by a criminal? It’s not possible to say vote ANC, to vote for a criminal,” Mbeki said.

This has raised questions about whether the ANC will survive not just the elections, which might bring about significant change in the political landscape, but its squabbles.

According to political analyst Arthur Shopola, it is not disputed that the ANC has been in self-annihilation mode for too long and has been lucky to have survived this many elections.

“You will remember the 2009 elections. They survived despite the Cope (Congress of the People) thunderstorm.

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“In 2014, again, the EFF factor, Marikana and Nkandla … it was during this time that others went as far as declaring the ANC dead,” he said.

“In 2019, there was a cloud of horror stories of corruption coming from the Zondo Commission (into state capture), but voters still gave this party another chance.

“Having said that, I am not suggesting history will repeat itself, I am saying the challenges this party is faced with are not new and the extent of the destruction is writ large in the 2021 local government elections outcomes.”

“Hence at some point the party was heard contemplating the future of this country under a coalition arrangement.”

He also said descriptions like “finished” and “dead” were extreme and unjustifiable “when you do not know what tomorrow holds, but it’s quite understandable when such words are uttered by political competitors, because the intention is to appeal to the conscious voter population”.

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“I know of many municipalities and wards where indications were clear that the ANC would not come back – but it emerged in the end.

“So, even if it’s clear the ANC is facing a dwindling voter base, I don’t think it would be prudent to dismiss the ANC before the polls. It’s a stunt, but a necessary one, especially coming from opposition parties. Is it slowing turning into history? Only time will tell.”

Thokozile Madonko, a researcher managing the Public Economy Project of the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies at Wits University, previously told The Citizen that looking at the country’s economic performance, load shedding, Transnet, water shortages, the cost-of-living crisis and interest rate hikes, among others, “it’s not surprising the party requires a political contestation”.

She said the ANC was desperately trying to find ways to become politically relevant again and Msimang’s outspoken resignation was one of many problems backing the party into a corner.

“Given their track record, they’re going to have to work extremely hard to just show people why they should vote for them,” she said.