Terrorists ‘likely to try carry out attacks in SA’

While images from CNN of Iranian parliamentarians chanting “Death to America” flashed around the world following the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Africa’s own issues with terrorism have been growing following the deaths of three Americans killed in Kenya.

“During an attack by al-Shabaab, an al-Qaida group in East Africa, earlier today, one U.S. service member and two Department of Defense contractors were killed at a Kenya Defense Force Military Base in Manda Bay, Kenya,” the United States Africa Command said in a statement on Sunday.

US Army General Stephen Townsend, commander, US Africa Command, noted the US would be hardening its resolve in pursuing those who sought to harm US interests.

“Alongside our African and international partners, we will pursue those responsible for this attack and al-Shabaab who seeks to harm Americans and U.S. interests,” Townsend said.

“We remain committed to preventing al-Shabaab from maintaining a safe haven to plan deadly attacks against the U.S. homeland, East African, and international partners.”

According to the Pentagon, Soleimani was the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, “a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization” and noted the US would “continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world”.

The Oxford Dictionary defined terrorism as “the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims” and in Africa, with despots and “rulers for life”, the line between freedom fighters and government atrocities was becoming increasingly blurred.

Graphic: Costa Mokola

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross’s (ICRC) Regional Director for Africa Patricia Danzi, in 2018 up to 45% of the organisation’s operations were in Africa.

Danzig noted geographical focuses of ICRC in Africa included the Lake Chad region, South Sudan, Somalia, Central Africa Republic, Mali and Libya.

Add to that list, Kenya, Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, and 15 other central and northern Africa countries according to a terrorism and political violence risk map generated by Aon risk consultancy.

Mixed with high levels of political interference risk for all but five of 54 African countries, and there’s a recipe for a full-blown continental war.

Terrorists are likely to try to carry out attacks in South Africa.

That’s been the ongoing warning from the British government for some time, which noted there was “a threat from individuals who may have been inspired by terrorist groups, including Daesh, to carry out so called ‘lone actor’ attacks targeting public places including where foreigners may gather”.

Institute for Security Studies (ISS) analyst Simon Allison noted in his brief on ISS yesterday statistics bore out the impression that conflict on the continent was increasing.

“The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which monitors incidents of conflict around the world, found that there had been 21 600 incidents of armed conflict in Africa in 2019 (up to 30 November),” Allison noted.

“For the same period in 2018, that number was just 15 874. That represents a 36% increase.”

According to Lwendo Kambela of the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes, Africa’s most prominent terrorist groups included Boko Haram of Nigeria and al-Shabaab of Somalia.

“This growing trend of terrorist attacks, which has resulted in the increased movement of people across borders, remains a major security challenge for policymakers in Africa,” Kambela said.

Allison said there was a glimmer of hope, however.

“In working together to sign the African Continental Free Trade Area, African leaders showed they are capable of taking a common position on a major continental challenge,” Allison said.

“If they can repeat and maintain that show of unity – and do it quickly – the forecast for 2021 might be better than this one.”

INFO

• A terrorist attack is defined as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”. – 2017 Global Terrorism Database (GTD) of the University of Maryland.

For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.