Survey finds EFF and DA equal in voter support while ANC slips below 50%

If South Africans headed to the polls tomorrow, 48% of them would vote for the governing African National Congress (ANC) while the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) would share 11% of the voter support respectively.

Graph: Afrobarometer

This is according to Afrobarometer data on South African’s perceptions of elections, political parties, and the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) ahead of the country’s general elections next year.

EFF deputy president Floyd Shivambu has tweeted that the findings by Afrobarometer show that the red berets are “growing in strength every day”.

Shivambu said these findings, which place the EFF on par with the main opposition in South Africa, the DA, further explain why the red berets have recently been met with “barking” opposition which he said kept “getting louder”.

“The EFF will never be defocused. We will fight with everything possible to bring about real emancipation to our people,” Shivambu tweeted.

The EFF is growing in strength everyday. This explains why the barking and digression tactics are getting louder. The EFF will never be defocused. We will fight with everything possible to bring about real emancipation to our people. https://t.co/rT8Xoc1DsZ

— Floyd Shivambu (@FloydShivambu) October 30, 2018

In the last general election in 2014, the ANC received 62% of the vote, the DA 22%, and the EFF – a party started in 2013 – received 6% of the vote.

The Afrobarometer data revealed that there is a growing proportion of younger people, an estimated 17%, who indicated that they would vote for the EFF.

“There is a growing proportion of younger people (around 17%) who indicated that they would vote for the EFF” says @afrobarometer’s Jamy Felton #ABSouthAfrica

— The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) (@_IJR_) October 30, 2018

South Africans who said that they do not feel close to any political party were 53%, with just under a third of the country’s citizens (29%) who said that they feel close to the ANC.

“53% of South Africans say that they do not feel close to any political party with just under a third of South Africans (29%) saying that they feel close to the ANC” #ABSouthAfrica @afrobarometer

— The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) (@_IJR_) October 30, 2018

According to the data, the ANC has the majority support in Limpopo (60%), Mpumalanga (65%), Eastern Cape (69%) and the North West (55%) while the DA has a majority support in the Western Cape.

The data further shows that in the Western Cape, the ANC trails the DA 31% to 21%.

South Africans who said they do not know which party they would vote for or would not vote or refused to answer the question are more than one-fourth (27%).

The data also revealed that trust in the IEC has dropped by 31% since 2011.

Key findings on attitudes towards elections: Trust in the IEC has dropped by 31% since 2011. A majority of South Africans accept that this current system is the best we have while almost two-thirds are willing to give up elections for basic services. #ABSouthAfrica @afrobarometer

— The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) (@_IJR_) October 30, 2018

Furthermore, a majority of South Africans accept that the country’s current electoral system is the best South Africa has, while almost two-thirds (62%) are willing to give up elections for basic services such as housing and jobs.

NEW: Increasingly non-partisan, majority of South Africans willing to trade elections for security, housings, jobs https://t.co/ASpNwbU5ym#ABSouthAfrica pic.twitter.com/gO7waN8Z4K

— Afrobarometer (@afrobarometer) October 30, 2018

Another key finding was that more than two thirds (69%) of South Africans said the 2014 general election was free and fair.

The Afrobarometer data also revealed that in the upcoming elections, all other political parties would combine for 4% of the votes.

The data revealed that the ANC and DA have lost ground compared to the Afrobarometer’s 2015 survey, 55% and 17% respectively.

The ANC, the data shows, is stronger in rural areas (59%) than in cities (49%), while the DA in rural areas has a 4% voter share and in urban areas 14%.

The EFF shows a balance in the urban and rural areas with 11% share in each of these areas.

“Men and women express similar voting preferences except for an EFF weakness among women (8%).

“By age group, the ANC shows its weakest support among younger citizens (43% of 18 to 25-year-olds).

“The EFF, on the other hand, is stronger among younger respondents (17% of 18 to 25-year-olds) than their elders.”

Read more of Afrobarometer’s findings here.

In the 2016 local government elections, the ANC received 54%, the DA 27%, and the EFF 8%.

(Compiled by Makhosandile Zulu)

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