SA’s power grid, economy can’t be weaned off coal for at least 200 years

South African’s average of 8.9 tonnes CO2 emissions per capita is among the highest in the developing world, way above the world average of 6.8 tonnes per person due to its reliance on coal.

This has seen the country ranked amongst the dirtiest energy producers in the world, ranking 14th on the global emissions list, according to the Carbon Report.

“Three-quarters of these emissions come from Eskom’s coal-fired power plants and Sasol’s coal-to-liquid fuel plant at Secunda, which is the largest in the world. In Secunda, their coal/gas-to-oil facility has the distinction of being the single largest point-of-source of CO2 emissions on earth,” according to Dr Jako Volschenk, Senior Lecturer in Strategy and Sustainability at the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB)

Troubled sector

The collapse of the country’s rail infrastructure has led to coal being increasingly transported on the roads, resulting in high volume of trucks on the roads not designed to carry such heavy traffic, often with tragic consequences.

The coal supply industry has also been gripped by crime syndicates swopping high grade coal with poor quality coal, which has been blamed for the poor performance of power stations and ultimately rolling blackouts.

ALSO READ: High-sulphur coal, poor quality control led to Eskom’s woes

Because coal supply is dominated by private contractors, there have also been concerns that the ANC government was seemingly reluctant in doing away with coal to protect private business interests and jobs.

Coal reality

But senior coal analyst Xavier Prévost disagreed that there was opposition to transition from coal for power generation, saying it was simply a matter of reality that the country cannot function without coal.

“I believe it is people like [Mineral Resources and Energy minister Gwede Mantashe] and [Public Enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan] that see SA’s reality, we cannot function without coal, beyond power generation, the whole SA industry is coal-based. We kill coal, we kill SA,” he said.

Prévost said SA needs a cheap source of energy, which is coal, and pointed out that there was a drive back to coal in Europe because coal cannot be replaced by renewables.

ALSO READ: How SA’s addiction to coal is sacrificing the planet to try keep the lights on

He said SA could only really consider ditching coal as the main energy source once all the country’s coal reserves had been exhausted, in about 200 years.

People before profit

But Thandile Chinyavanhu, a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Africa Communications, says though the coal industry has been in decline for decades, coal zealots refuse to admit that it is no longer economically viable.

She urged the ANC government to put their economic interests aside and put people before profit, saying the climate crisis and the just transition messages from the ruling party officials were disjointed.

Chinyavanhu lamented that the primary issue was that coal was not compatible with the safety and survival of the frontline communities that straddle these coal-fired power plants, saying many South Africans were already grappling with the impacts of climate change.

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She said the ANC government must put its economic interests aside and put people before profit. 

“South Africa urgently needs to redirect its electricity policies to meet the standards of the global energy transition and the evolution of the electricity markets,” Chinyavanhu added.

“South Africa ranked 110 among 115 nations in the World Economic Forum’s latest Energy Transition Index, which benchmarks countries based on the performance of their energy system, as well as their readiness for transition to a secure, sustainable, affordable, and reliable energy future; this ranking is indicative of South Africa’s poor adaptive capacity and stagnation relative to other countries. Our poor energy performance threatens South African society at every level.”

Just transition

The SA Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) has agreed that coal has been a big part of South Africa’s energy history and will not be removed overnight.

But Niveshen Govender, SAWEA CEO, said there was a commitment from government to transition from carbon intensive electricity production to a low carbon energy future.

He said this has been in the climate change commitments through the Paris agreement, and the country’s commitment to the conference of the parties, year on year.

Govender said this was further seen in the policy changes with a renewable-energy-heavy Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), the progressive Electricity Regulation Act (ERA) amendments Bill, and the latest version of the ERA Schedule 2.

“This transition must happen with the country’s best interest, ensuring that it is fair, equitable and just,” he added.

According to the study on coal transition in SA, the difficulty of the transition was exacerbated by the very high dependence on coal for energy and coal’s role in the economy in general and Mpumalanga in particular.

The report noted that at the same time, the coal sector was already facing challenges and crises due to cost increases, energy security risks, export demand risks and low local demand growth.

ANOW READ: Transition from coal to renewable energy is the way to go, says Ramaphosa