Ramaphosa is losing ground in hotly contested succession race – ANC insider

Cyril Ramaphosa’s journey to the Union Buildings has hit some potholes, and even some of his supporters are worried that he does not have the numbers he needs to be president of the ANC and the country.

Despite his appeal to South Africans across the board, it appears that the campaign of his main challenger for the country’s top political post, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is gathering momentum.

Recently, Ramaphosa suffered a serious set-back in his home province of Limpopo at the hands of Dlamini-Zuma, who has made serious inroads into some crucial regions.

The turn-out at Mopani region left the former African Union Commission chairperson smiling, with some already concluding that the province was sliding towards the NDZ- 17 camp.

None was more ecstatic than NDZ campaign team member Carl Niehaus, who said the situation proved beyond doubt that Limpopo was in fact not the preserve of Ramaphosa or any other candidate.

This is serious. You need at least 2 500 delegates to vote for you in order to win, but I don’t see that happening if Cyril’s campaign team do not wake up

Ramaphosa is backed by Limpopo premier and provincial chairperson Stanley Mathabatha, while Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign in the province is led by three campaigners – provincial secretary Nocks Seabi, deputy secretary Makoma Makhurupetje and former chairperson and premier Cassel Mathale.

A member with links to both the ANC and the provincial government painted a bleak picture of Ramaphosa’s fortunes, not only in Limpopo but country wide.

He said although Limpopo pronounced as early as last year on its preference for the “son of the soil” (Ramaphosa), the situation was changing now that the campaign has hit the trail.

PRO-ZUMA. Sources within the camp of ANC MP Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma have suggested she would be happy
to keep Jacob Zuma on as South African president if she wins leadership of the party in their December conference,
resulting in two centres of power. Picture:Gallo Images

However, the same member said many branches still believed in Ramaphosa and many had nominated him. But the trick would be in keeping that support until the conference, a task that appears to be elusive.

The man said the support for CR was not as solid in the province as was initially thought and he feared that it may be the case nationally.

“This is serious. You need at least 2 500 delegates to vote for you in order to win, but I don’t see that happening if Cyril’s campaign team do not wake up. Comrades must get off their horses and start working, otherwise this Cyril thing is a pipe dream,” he said.

If Ramaphosa relied on provinces like Gauteng and Eastern Cape for votes, he may be disappointed at the December conference.

The ANC member said Gauteng was never a strong province in the ANC and all its previous positions of a “third way” always failed, while the Eastern Cape was presently divided, despite its recent pronouncement on Ramaphosa as its choice.

Any candidate with solid support in KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, North West, as well as the ANC youth and women’s leagues, and who manages to win Mpumalanga over, will be bound to win the ANC race.

It’s a very tight race, but for me I am afraid unless Ramaphosa jacks up his campaign, anything could happen in December

And, for Dlamini-Zuma, the only ingredient missing in that recipe for success is Mpumalanga, where premier David Mabuza has been sitting on the fence for some time.

The member said although Ramaphosa has managed to gain ground in those provinces, his support was not based in structures but was backed by disgruntled individuals and branch and league members who felt marginalised by the status quo.

As a leader, Ramaphosa was not a grassroots campaigner and as a former trade unionist, he had to shop steward councils and worker members, many of whom were not necessarily political activists.

His campaign is also backed by Cosatu and the South African Communist Party that are both not rooted enough to influence the branch positions.

The real influencers are members of the branch executive committee, particularly the chairperson and the secretary.

But for a strategist like Jacob Zuma, a vital backer for NDZ, the real supporters are the people at the lowest level, which was the approach he used to beat Thabo Mbeki in Polokwane in 2007.

“It’s a very tight race, but for me I am afraid unless Ramaphosa jacks up his campaign, anything could happen in December. These comrades must get away from the microphone politics and start getting their hands dirty. Nice soundbytes are not going to Nasrec, but delegates will be there to vote,” he said.

Ramaphosa is supported mainly by the Vhembe region of Limpopo, Gauteng, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape that had far less than 2 000 delegates.

On the other hand, ANC KZN, North West and Free State – that are behind Dlamini-Zuma – share 1 717.

When excluding non-committal provinces such as Mpumalanga and Western Cape, whose members are divided between the two main candidates, the scale tilts in Dlamini-Zuma’s favour. – ericn@citizen.co.za

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