Race Relations Survey says EFF could grow bigger at ANC’s expense

The Institute of Race Relations released a survey on Sunday which states that the Economic Freedom Fighters could shave off 10% of support from the ANC by next years elections.

The poll was conducted between August 22, 2018 and September 4. The sample was demographically represented and comprised only from registered voters.

A total of 978 respondents were questioned, and a confidence level of 95% with a 3.1 margin of error were reached.

In the survey, IRR head of politics and governance Gareth van Onselen writes that the ANC’s strategic decision to nullify the EFF by attempting to pander to and adopt its policies backfired dramatically and around 10% of alienated black ANC voters were “now being won over by the EFF on the back of their ability to dominate the ANC.”

“The EFF has been able to do this without having any clear and compelling vision on those priority issues that matter most to voters, jobs, unemployment, education and healthcare.

“The EFF has surged in national support and is currently polling at 13%. Its support has come at the expense of the ANC, which is at 52%. The EFF’s support will however depend on turnout. If turnout drops, EFF support drops in turn, while the Democratic Alliances support increases from 23% to 27%.”

The survey notes that alienated black ANC voters have responded to the EFF’s ability to dominate ANC policy and chose to align with it rather than the ANC.

“The current national political landscape is a surge in support for the EFF and, simultaneously, a dramatic decline in support for the ANC, compared to the 2014 election results.”

According to the survey, the EFF appears to have grown at the ANC’s expense, while the DA remains stable.

This means the ANC looks set to get just over half the vote (52%)‚ the DA 23% and the EFF 13% next year. In the 2014 general elections‚ the ruling party received 62% of the vote‚ the DA 22% and the EFF 6%.

Van Onselen said the base of the EFF’s support comes from Gauteng.

“The province is South Africa’s most populous and the 17% the EFF has secured in Gauteng will have gone some considerable way towards driving up its national percentage of the vote.”

The survey reveals that there seems to be no majority party in Gauteng next year as the poll found 46% support for the ANC, 28% for the DA and 17% for the EFF in the province.

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