Zuma’s allies target Ramaphosa at ANC general council, but face a tough task

Even though the NGC is about assessing implementation of the resolutions taken at the ANC’s elective conference in December 2017, political experts believe Zuma allies will seek to prematurely remove Ramaphosa from leadership because he has allegedly not executed Nasrec decisions they are aligned with.

One of the most controversial of those was the resolution to nationalise the Reserve Bank, which economists warn could seriously damage foreign investment confidence and will be reflected in the decisions of international financial ratings agencies.

Ramaphosa did go some way in this state of the nation address – and this was actioned by Minister of Finance Tito Mbowni’s recent budget – to move to set up both a state bank and a sovereign wealth fund. However, these moves will not satisfy the ANC’s self-styled “radicals” who say they are pursuing the “radical economic transformation” (RET) agenda of Zuma.

Analysts say if the showdown happens at the NGC, the RET group will face an uphill battle to remove Ramaphosa.

Political analyst Ongama Mtimka says the RET Gauteng groups that oppose Zuma’s prosecution are capable of doing anything to achieve their objectives.

This includes raising a vote of no confidence in Ramaphosa, although it will be irrelevant to the NGC agenda.

“This is not a group that will be bound by the rules of the NGC or the ANC. If they realise the balance of forces are in their favour, they will strike,” Mtimka said.

The claim by the RET group that Zuma is being politically prosecuted, and they will do anything to defend him, is an attempt to frame the narrative in their favour as many of them are implicated in state capture.Their public show of force is an attempt to intimidate the current ANC leadership, says Mtimka.

They were “signalling” to show strength and as a preemptive strike against National Prosecuting Authority action against those fingered in state capture.

“They are flexing their muscles and trying to ruffle feathers towards the ANC NGC so as to strike compromises that will see them not prosecuted,” Mtimka said.

At best, the group wanted to shift the balance of power within the ANC and ultimately get compromises from the other Ramaphosa faction.

Another analyst, Dr Ralph Mathekga, said it would be a mistake to underestimate what the RET members would do in their fight for political survival.

“Ramaphosa is very vulnerable. The fact there is talk of recalling him from some is not good for him at all,” Mathekga said.

Ramaphosa enjoyed public approval as a leader, but this was meaningless if he did not have the balance of power in his party.

Unisa politics professor Dirk Kotze noted that some of the RET group had lost institutional power. That Supra Mahumapelo was no longer premier, but merely a parliamentary portfolio chairperson, weakened them.

“None of them are in key positions,” said Kotze. “They are fragmented because they have no institutional power and are not in control of state contracts any more. They are trying to protect themselves against possible prosecution.

“At the same time, they are trying to tell Ramaphosa and the NPA that ‘if you charge us, this is what is going to happen’.

“It is not possible to recall the president at the NGC because the meeting is meant to review policies and resolutions … not leadership election. There will be no motion of no confidence, or recall.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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