‘Strategically, Zuma still has upper hand’ in drama between MK and ANC

Political analysts are criticising the ANC, labelling its decision-making “faulty”, following the postponement of the disciplinary hearing of Jacob Zuma due to security concerns and fears of violence at ANC headquarters Luthuli House.

The ANC has released a statement noting that, based on an assessment of the security situation at Luthuli House, they had been told that activities, including disciplinary hearings that attract large gatherings, were not advisable as violence may ensue.

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“Accordingly, ANC national officials have decided that such activities should be held in abeyance until after the election. This includes the national disciplinary committee (NDC) hearing of Zuma,” the ruling party said.

Political analyst Andre Duvenhage said when the crisis developed around Zuma forming the uMkhonto weSize (MK) party, the ANC decided not to act against him. This was a mistake but “they didn’t want to create divisions within the ANC and basically postponed their reaction”.

“The ANC is very concerned about its support base. As a result of that, they decided to take disciplinary action against Zuma. And Zuma is controlling the political scene to the extent that the ANC is concerned about taking him on because it may backfire in the few weeks away from the election,” Duvenhage said.

“There’s no doubt the MK party will use this as an opportunity for media propaganda. What is interesting is the disciplinary hearing has a higher media profile than the media campaign of the ANC regarding the election.”

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Duvenhage added: “That must be a concern to them – that Zuma is indirectly, through the media, dominating the scene.

“There’s a high potential for political instability, conflict and even violence. And this is backfiring in the face of the ANC and downgrading their image shortly before the election.”

Security concerns

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula defended the decision to postpone Zuma’s disciplinary hearing yesterday. He emphasised the security concerns and also defended the timing of Zuma’s disciplinary hearing, stating that events pertaining to Zuma had been rapidly changing.

“From the announcement of voting for MK party to now leading the party – in between that we need to remind you about the decisions the ANC has taken.

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“The NDC in its last meeting decided to evoke a rule in our constitution to formally take action against Zuma and that led to his suspension,” he said.

Mbalula also confirmed no virtual hearing would take place after the election.

“The NDC must stand in abeyance, including on virtual hearings, after the election. We do not expect anything to take place on Tuesday (tomorrow) as the instructions have been communicated,” he said.

Sandile Swana, a political analyst, said conducting a disciplinary hearing against Zuma three weeks before the election was too late because he was unpredictable.

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The message that was conveyed was that the decision-making process of the ANC was faulty. He said the announcement of the hearing was enough to trigger big publicity for Zuma and the MK party to capitalise on.

‘Zuma still has upper hand’

Swana added that the ANC was capable of orchestrating violence around Luthuli House.

“However, this time, fire will be met with fire if they try the same tricks on Zuma.

“So, tactically and strategically, Zuma still has the upper hand in this entire drama between MK and the ANC,” he said.

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“Everything they want to negotiate now, they will negotiate after the election with Zuma. But it will incorporate a number of political demands driven by how many votes the MK party gets.”

Zuma is currently suspended from the ANC after publicly campaigning for the MK party.

Duvenhage added: “I’m not excluding the possibility that the ANC and MK may negotiate a settlement after the election in which MK gives their support to the ANC.”

– zanelem@citizen.co.za