Will Ace pull a ‘Samson’ or is he gasping for air? Analysts weigh in

The political mercury is rising in the governing ANC, with power plays between the Cyril Ramaphosa and Ace Magashule camps heading to a boiling point.

This week, Ramaphosa faces a motion of no confidence in Parliament.

The ANC is also weighing up legal advice about its secretary-general, Magashule, with analysts leaning towards a prediction that Magashule will not step down from his position.

Political analysts Theo Venter and Ralph Mathekga agree that if Ramaphsoa wants to win this war, he might need to concede the battle to the Magashule camp.

Over the weekend, Magashule was mobilising at ground-level for the ANC, despite the cloud of criminal charges hanging over his head.

According to Venter, Magashule is in much the same position as a Covid-19 patient at this point.

“His political oxygen is getting less and less – he is gasping for air.”

“Ramaphosa won’t be voted out in the motion. It’s an open ballot so people will have to raise their hands to vote and no one in the ANC has the guts at this stage to vote against Ramaphosa,” Venter said.

“It will be interesting to see though how those in Magashule’s camp, like Supra [Mahumapelo] and Faith [Muthambi] handle it – they will most likely vote in a block for Ramaphosa to show unity of mission, but that can be interpreted as not being as strongly orientated towards the Magashule-Zuma camp.”

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Mathekga also believes Ramaphosa will come through the no-confidence motion intact.

“There is a group of ANC members that don’t like Ramaphosa, the group led by Magashule, but it’s quite risky for them to express that in this motion,” Mathekga said.

“If they do that [support he motion of no confidence] that will precipitate early elections and they will be faced with a huge task in the middle of a term – we have local government elections coming. I don’t think they are willing to lose their president in this way – the don’t want to be out of power. They will save him.”

On the legal opinions being weighed up about Magashule, Venter said the kind of language coming from the Magashule camp was worth noting.

“Ace is dangerous in that he can open up names, he can make things available, he can do what Samson did in the Bible and pull the pillars down, but then he is pulling the pillars down on everyone,” he said.

While Venter believed the right thing was for Magashule to step down while facing criminal charges “to save the name and reputation of the ANC”, Mathekga pointed out: “If he steps down, he would have lost.”

Mathekga added: “There are too many people implicated – they will all have to step down. The more members they add, the more the stand-off grows.”

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