Who will be the next ANC deputy?

Senior ANC members are confident that Cyril Ramaphosa will get a second term as ANC leader, but a debate is raging within the tripartite alliance as to who the second in command should be.

Reports claiming Ramaphosa’s business mogul brother-in-law, Patrice Motsepe, intended to enter the presidential race as a “neutral candidate” in the light of the ongoing factionalism, seemed to be overshadowed by potential jostling for the number 2 position.

But many doubted Motsepe would contest and some have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

“Patrice wouldn’t dare to spoil Cyril’s chances of a second term. Maybe next time he will,” said an ANC source.

Motsepe is not a member of the ANC national executive, nor has he served in any other lower structures of the ANC or its alliance partners and if he is nominated it would go against the party tradition.

Whether it is Motsepe or Ramaphosa or both on the same slate, they will face stiff competition from the radical economic transformation (RET) forces who will field their own candidate at the party’s December elective conference.

But the focus presently is on the second-in-command position. The general consensus was for ANC deputy president David Mabuza to be replaced because he is an absent deputy. His regular visits to Russia to seek special treatment for his undisclosed sickness have eroded his popularity in the ANC.

The fact that other names were being discussed while he was not mentioned for re-election is a clear indication of loss of confidence in Mabuza within the ANC.

Names that were receiving attention among party structures and on social media debates were those of Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola, Minister of Defence Thandi Modise, Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Dr Naledi Pandor and Minister of Human Settlements, Water and Sanitation Nkhensani Kubayi-Ngubane.

Others being discussed for deputy president, especially in the Eastern Cape, were Gwede Mantashe and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane.

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There are now three factions in the Eastern Cape. One led by Mabuyane and another by ANC provincial treasurer Babalo Madikizela back Ramaphosa’s second term, but disagree on the next deputy president. Mabuyane’s camp want him to get the position and the Madikizela side back Mantashe.

The third faction is the RET, or Zuma faction, headed by provincial legislature speaker Mlibo Qoboshiyane.

There were also rumours that ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile could join the race to be next deputy president of the party.

The last Cabinet reshuffle was the first instalment of Ramaphosa’s game plan. He used it to put his ducks in a row by bringing in his loyalists, Lamola and Modise, and replacing Lindiwe Sisulu with Kubayi-Ngubane in housing.

Lamola, at 39, was needed by the structures and the youth as part of the generational mix policy in which the youth are elevated to senior positions to sustain the party into the future. But some questioned his elevation.

“If we bring youth to such a position or make the ANC a replica of the youth league, we run the risk of destroying our movement,” an ANC member, who preferred to remain anonymous, said. “I believe the ANC should be led by stalwarts such as Joel Netshitenzhe and others who are tried and tested cadres. Lamola should rather grow within the movement before he goes so high.”

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Lamola occupies one of most senior and influential portfolios in the country. As political head of the merged justice and correctional position, he is the custodian of the constitution and the judiciary is his responsibility, while the entire prison system falls under his command. However, some said he was too young for that position, never mind an elevation to deputy president.

Modise’s redeployment from the speaker was seen as a waiting room for the deputy portfolio. She couldn’t have accepted a lower position without an assurance of a higher posting. Besides, Modise is a disciplinarian famous for getting the rowdy Economic Freedom Fighters MPs under control in the national legislature during her tenure as parliamentary presiding officer. She is seen as a stern and authoritative leader, which some believe is what this country needs in the leadership.

Pandor, while not a grassroots person but an intellectual, was selected as Ramaphosa’s running mate until she withdrew in favour of Sisulu at Nasrec. But Ramaphosa got an offer he could not refuse from former Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza, who donated Mpumalanga votes in exchange for the deputy president post. Ramaphosa settled for Mabuza and ditched Sisulu, who is likely to come back to challenge him for the presidency from the Zuma camp slate at the next elective conference in December.

Kubayi-Ngubane is among the young politicians, along with Lamola, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni and Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams, that Ramaphosa earmarked for top positions and to plug the gaps where generational mix and gender equity were lacking.

Kubayi-Ngubane was moved from a more relaxed tourism portfolio to the multifunction human settlements, water and sanitation portfolio and Sisulu was shifted to tourism.

Political analyst André Duvenhage said there were more factions now than ever before within provincial structures in the run-up to the conference. He expressed concern at the increasing level of violence, particularly at gatherings at lower levels.

“We may see a scenario towards the end of the year where the ANC may not be able to hold the conference unless it controls the violence within its ranks,” he said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za