Election posters along Pretorius Street in Tshwane ahead of the 1 November 2021 municipal elections. Picture: Jacques Nelles
The year 2022 was a very busy one politically speaking and 2023 will be no different, according to political analysts, most of whom believe plenty of drama and changes lie ahead.
Speaking to The Citizen on Tuesday, Prof Andre Duvenhage from the North West University (NWU) believes this year will be a year of transition.
“We are experiencing a number of fundamental changes on literally all levels of state, society, as well as the economy.”
“As far as politics is concerned, it is absolutely clear that coalition politics are going to be critically important, [including] in the build up to the 2024 general elections,” said Duvenhage.
Commenting further on the much-anticipated elections, Duvenhage said many promises will continue to be made by various political parties, while expectations from ordinary citizens will remain high, to their own detriment.
“High expectations are always connected to conflict and in some cases violence, and therefore I am expecting high levels of political instability,” said Duvenhage.
“I’m also concerned about levels of service delivery and I also believe that the findings of the Zondo Commission and the fight against corruption may contribute to patterns of instability, because the findings of the commission need to be implemented, Phala Phala needs to be sorted out, so I think the whole corruption dynamics are going to be critically important.”
“One of the biggest challenges facing President Cyril Ramaphosa is to focus on a reform agenda of some sort when it comes to the economy, and my take on it is that this is going to be an extremely difficult task, considering the international economic environment.
“South Africa needs fundamental reform of our political system and we need to reposition ourselves within the context of international politics,” said Duvenhage.
Another political analyst, Dr Levy Ndou is of the opinion that there will be a lot of repositioning of different political parties in an attempt to convince the public of their relevance.
“As for the ANC, they would want to revive the Women’s League and the Youth League, in order to send out ground forces to prepare for the 2024 elections.
“The ANC will work hard through its secretary general Fikile Mbalula in ensuring that all structures are well-oiled,” said Ndou.
According to Ndou, the real work for the ANC will start this weekend, at the party’s 111th celebrations, where they will outline their programme for the year. Much of this will focus on how ordinary citizens are going to respond to the party in 2024.
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Ndou says part of the ANC’s strategy will also be to put a lot of focus on corruption, discipline from within the party, and all those implicated in corrupt activity.
The ANC has the tough task of ensuring action is taken against at least some of them, to convince the public they are serious about dealing with corruption.
What will also be interesting to watch, according to Ndou, will be provincial ANC in KZN, where the leadership appears to be under pressure.
“When Sihle Zikalala left, he had won elections for the party in the province.
“The newly-elected provincial leadership has a difficult task at hand and that is to make sure they can do better than Sihle, considering the number of wards the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has won during previous elections,” said Ndou.
“The Democratic Alliance (DA) is supposed to go for a leadership conference, and they would want to deal with it as soon as possible, and whoever they elect will have to be a person who’s able to attract votes from different races,” said Ndou.
“The DA should position leaders who can be acceptable by different races ahead of 2024, and they will have to put a lot of focus on their election machinery for 2024.”
He said they would also want to ensure that service delivery is accelerated, particularly in the different metros where they are leading, in a bid to point out things they have been able to achieve to the electorate.
Ndou says the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema have had a very busy 2022, especially with the launching of provincial structures.
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“So, for now, they should be preparing for the elections and ensuring that they identify areas where they will be relevant.
“They should be seen to be active participants where they have seats in different municipalities about issues affecting residents and they must also develop a plan for growth… the 10% they have remains low and they will have to work harder for further growth,” Ndou said.
Ndou says ActionSA, which showed some positive signs during the 2021 local government elections, also cannot be ignored.
Not only did ActionSA manage to put a dent on the ANC’s support base in Soweto, but also managed to get a number of votes in suburban areas of Johannesburg.
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“They will try to make inroads and contest for support, especially from former DA members and ANC members. ActionSA also don’t want the ANC to continue to be in power. They might not be able to make huge impact in rural areas but definitely in the urban areas.
“Other parties such as the Congress of the People (COPE) and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) will continue with their silent programmes, unless there’s a national issue, we won’t hear much from them,” Ndou said.
“We are yet to see what is going to be presented to us in the form of this movement and I think the caliber of the people it will bring on board will determine whether or not it will have any impact on the political landscape,” Ndou said.
Niehaus was expelled from the ANC on the eve of the party’s national elective conference in December last year.
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Towards the end of last year, Ramaphosa endured a lot of pressure over the theft which occurred at Phala Phala farm.
The matter was also debated in Parliament, where some senior members of the ANC voted in favour of the adoption of the Section 89 report.
Ndou added the matter was no longer in Ramaphosa’s hands, saying it will all depend on what the outstanding reports on the matter say.
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