Voters irked by big parties

The November municipal elections in just over three weeks time may be a watershed event for political parties.

It could be anyone’s gain – if online sentiment, conversations and activity are anything to go by.

The outcomes are in real time and may change week on week as the polls draw nearer. But generally, South Africans are gatvol, not just by the lack of service delivery, but also of the political establishment that keeps serving up more of the same.

There is a party-agnostic tide sweeping across the net, with opportunities for the party that’s able to sell change, quickly.

The big players are the ANC, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), with ActionSA as the dark horse, it seems.

Digital analyst Carmen Murray says the ruling party enjoys the largest share of negative sentiment at 30%, closely followed by the DA, with 25% negativity associated with its brand.

The EFF comes in at around 15% with election debutant ActionSA.

Positive support looks just as bleak, with the ANC in the green with only 5%, the DA at 6%, the EFF at just over 7% and ActionSA leading with almost 10%.

“But the biggest tell-tale sign is the huge amount of neutral sentiment,” she says.

Sentiment, as measured on social media tool Meltwater, is supported by search data and additional listening and analysis by Murray.

“One of the fastest-growing search and conversation trends is ‘who should I vote for?’” she says.

“People really don’t know this time around and this may also have a significant impact on voter apathy amongst the traditional support bases.

“The dark horse in this race,” adds Murray, “is Action SA, which is performing exceptionally well given their newbie status.”

“I am not really surprised,” says Russel Crystal, a political analyst and former deputy executive director of the Democratic Party-DA for Tony Leon.

“There is a very high level of dissatisfaction with the establishment parties and … I would be concerned if I led any one of these entities.”

This is likely a consequence of the uninspiring campaigns these parties are running. Add to this voter exhaustion, given parties’ inability to change anything.

“The ANC has shown it is incompetent and corrupt and unable to deliver any kind of programme,” says Crystal.

According to Crystal, the ANC may continue to dominate the political agenda, as opposition parties take their lead from the ruling party and provide reactionary opposition.

“There’s no real disruptor, everyone just feeds off the ANC’s playbook.”

On Wednesday, ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba went viral when he accused the Electoral Commission of South Africa and the ANC of being bedmates.

“It trended fast,” says Murray. “But it is a momentary disruption.” It later cost ActionSA several negative comments and, says Murray, could end up impacting sentiment and shifting current neutrality into negative sentiment.

Then the DA plastered posters in Phoenix, KwaZulu-Natal, calling the community “heroes to the DA” with a
contrasting message “The ANC calls you racists”.

“It was a disruptive leverage of the August looting and would have resonated … if used nationally.

“But the party made a fundamental error by confining the campaign to one area, in turn painting themselves as racist,” says Crystal.

“A national, biting campaign like that could have won a lot more support but, instead, it backfired.”

Murray says insofar as share of voice goes, the ANC holds the majority with 82% of editorial and 52% of social media messaging. Editorially the DA trails with 3.1% visibility, far behind the EFF with 10.7% and ActionSA at 2.6%.

Social media share of voice tells a similar story, with the EFF at 26%, the DA at 8.9% and ActionSA at 2.6%.

It is curious, given “the DA issues press releases on every burp and utterance of the ANC”, says Crystal. “Perhaps they need to take a different angle and approach issues differently.

“Opposition parties simply shadow the ANC and take them on without really providing any kind of alternative.

“A true political disruptor will turn the ANC agenda upside down and nobody has done that. Therefore, it will be really hard to beat them in the elections.”

Murray said themes and trending topics about the EFF included anti-apartheid activism, community meetings and discussions about the country.

The ANC was trending with conversations about the country, jobs, stadiums and the word “shame”, while Mashaba’s IEC comments have lit up the internet and other trends on ActionSA also include themes that foreshadowed that attack.

“Now that is disruption,” says Murray, “but for how long it can be sustained and how much meaning it has for voters a few weeks down the line, is anyone’s guess. It’s up to Mashaba to keep up the momentum.”

– news@citizen.co.za