Unrealistic: Another term for Zuma is a pipe dream

Aspiring to make a comeback, former president Jacob Zuma’s chances of becoming president again are unrealistic, according to experts.

Zuma, who is now part of the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, is likely to be the movement’s presidential candidate, even while still being a member of the ANC.

Zuma promised an MK-led government

Addressing a large gathering of the Nazareth Baptist Church, popularly known as Shembe Church, in Ndwedwe, KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma promised an MK-led government would better govern the country through a democratic system.

“I was quickly removed before the end of my term as president,” he said. “I was removed because I wanted to change people’s lives. Their [the ANC’s] behaviour has made me come back to fix things.

“I am here to ask for your prayers that we govern the country well, that there are no complaints against those in government.”

‘Confusing and an unrealistic expectation’ on the part of Zuma

Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said it was rather confusing and an unrealistic expectation on the part of Zuma, to think he could electorally gain enough votes to become president of South Africa again.

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Silke said Zuma was “living in something of a fantasy land” if he believed he could become president again, just on the basis of launching a new political party.

“I think former president Zuma’s political party is going to find it very tough at the polls,” he said.

“And while the MK party may create problems for the ANC, in KZN in particular, and could actually prevent the ANC from getting a majority in that province, beyond that there is no real practical expectation the MK party could secure enough votes, [except] to perhaps get a handful of members elected into parliament.”

Silke added the MK party was there to embarrass and disrupt the ANC.

“Its purpose is to embarrass, in particular, President [Cyril] Ramaphosa and to weaken him. But the expectation that Zuma could get back into a leadership position on the basis of a strong MK showing, is not likely to occur,” he said.

Near impossible unless Zuma changed the constitution and overcame legal challenges

It would be near impossible for Zuma to achieve that unless he changed the constitution and overcame his two legal challenges, said advocate Mannie Witz.

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He said Zuma could play a leading role but “he’d have a problem in regards to his eligibility because of the conviction in the sentence”.

“I also do not think you can serve more than two terms as president,” he said.

Zuma was charged in 2021 with multiple counts of corruption over a multibillion-rand arms deal that South Africa signed in 1999 with French company Thales, then known as Thomson-CSF.

The trial officially began nearly three years ago but no evidence has yet been heard, as Zuma has launched a series of legal challenges.

While Zuma was fighting to stay out of jail in a second case related to corruption, he was found guilty of the crime of contempt of court and sentenced to 15 months’ imprisonment.

He was then spared further time in prison by a decision to remit his 15-month sentence for contempt of court.

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The remission was granted by President Cyril Ramaphosa, in terms of a presidential ruling, to cut short the jail time for prisoners serving sentences of less than two years for nonviolent crimes.

“Even though you didn’t serve the full sentence, it doesn’t affect the sentence.

“So, you’re sentenced for 15 months and you only served two or three months, in this particular case, it’s still 15 months.

“That’s what it would show on his SAP 69 in the criminal record centre. It would show 15 months,” he said.

“Lots of people get sentenced to terms of imprisonment and excluding parole or conversion to corrective supervision, it doesn’t affect the original sentence.

“If you didn’t serve the full time, the sentence still stands. You haven’t in any way succeeded in changing the sentence in a court of law.”

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Zuma not be eligible to stand for election unless he overturned his convictions

On an ordinary reading of Section 47 of the constitution, Zuma would, therefore, not be eligible to stand for election to the National Assembly unless he overturned his convictions.

Witz said once the conviction was overturned, the sentence made no difference.

“If the conviction is overturned, whatever sentence you have got, even if it’s 10 years, falls away,” he said

Witz added he did not think Zuma would overturn his conviction as he had exhausted all his legal remedies.

“There’s two ways you can expunge a criminal record,” he continued.

“One, you’ve got to wait 10 years, which I don’t think he will do.

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“And the other way you can expunge a criminal record is you can apply to the president and get a presidential pardon – and then they’ll expunge your record off the criminal record system,” he said.

“So, unless he gets the president to give him a presidential pardon to expunge his record, the record’s going to stand [and] then they have to disqualify him.

“That’s the only way he can do it. I can’t see that happening, but you never know.”