Time running out for hung councils to get their coalitions sorted

If politicians cannot get coalitions or working agreements together in the window period of 14 days after gazetting of the election results, South African local government politics may be in for a rough ride.

The clock started ticking on Tuesday, with a dozen working days left before new councils must meet and elect office bearers that include a new mayor and speaker. If no common ground is found, there are a few potentially calamitous scenarios ahead and the party that runs the province may get a gap to assume control of a metro.

Also Read: These are the hung councils in South Africa

In the instance where no coalitions or working agreements are reached, the first council meeting will have to see individuals or parties vote for the various mayoral and speaker candidates. This may result in a never-ending story of dog-chase-tail, with a process of elimination and numerous rounds of voting until two candidates remain. It could even
go down to drawing lots to determine a winner.

But any opposition to an elected person may solicit an immediate vote of no confidence. In cities or towns where no party holds an outright majority, there may be an attempt at a minority government. This means the ANC would assume the reins in Johannesburg, for example, with 91 seats (they would need 131 to govern outright or in a coalition).

Running a city with a minority government is not easy. Every bylaw, budget, rates and taxes discussion, or motion that comes before council, can only be passed by majority. Since there is no clear majority, the minority party in control would have to negotiate every matter tabled with every party.

Also Read: Explainer: What is a hung council, and what does it mean for voters?

In a city like Johannesburg, there are more than 12 parties with seats – and an opinion.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) ran Tshwane as a minority prior to the election.

“It is not ideal as it introduces an element of instability; literally living from council meeting to council meeting,” said DA leader John Steenhuisen.

“This is very disruptive to any programme, but it does make a lie of the proposition by the commentariat that by rejecting a deal with the ANC we are ‘forcing’ them to work with the [Economic Freedom Fighters]. This is pure baloney. We would be seeking stable coalitions that can go the distance and deliver because we found the minority government option very difficult.”

Political commentator Russel Crystal said: “The real crunch for the ANC is that nobody wants to work with them.

“Any association with the ANC could drag a party down and erode their future relevance.

“Their only route to a working coalition is to work with the EFF, but the question is, would the EFF want to work with them because traditionally the party prefers loose working agreements over formal coalitions.”

ActionSA’s Michael Beaumont said while ratepayers may benefit from the added discourse a minority government may demand, the probability of the council being able to pass critical aspects such as budgets which directly impact service delivery, may be hamstrung.

If a minority fails to govern and a council risks collapsing, the provincial MEC must intervene.

Not the preferred option is that the MEC amends the role of the mayor from an executive position to a ceremonial ribbon-cutter, and management of the city is handed to a mayoral committee, where parties are proportionally represented and tasked with the executive role of the mayor. In a way, this becomes a forced coalition or power-sharing scenario.

The power that a coalition could have brought smaller parties will then make way for a structure that may favour the influence of the party in control of the province.

In Johannesburg’s case, it would be the ANC.

“The mayoral committee system would be a serious problem for the DA,” said Crystal, “as it would have a dilemma in serving as an effective strong opposition, while also serving on any committee where the ANC and EFF have the majority of representation.

“This is because they would either end up being seen as the obstacle to service delivery or collaborating with ANC and EFF proposals. It’s for this reason that Tony Leon, in the Mandela government of national unity, turned down an offer to serve in Cabinet.”

A council must be in office for at least two years before it can be dissolved, unless there are exceptional circumstances, for example, if the majority do not support, or refuse to vote for, the mayoral or speaker candidates.

“Then the provincial MEC can, with permission from Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma [cooperative governance and traditional affairs minister], dissolve the council.

“This impasse and its consequence could lead to administrators being appointed to run the city for 90 days, by when a new election must be called,” said Crystal.

– news@citizen.co.za