Things could get worse for ANC in 2024 elections, if they don’t shape up

Although voters have different reasons dictating where they put their cross in national elections than in local government elections, the past polls’ numbers could be a warning of what to expect in 2024, if the ANC continues on its current course.

While the ruling party received most of the votes across the country’s municipalities, they failed to reach the 50% mark in most of the big metros, leading to opposition parties banding together to boot them out of power.

“With local government elections, even though you vote for a party, you know the candidates that are there and some candidates might influence you not to vote for your preferred party. But for as long as the numbers are going down, it should be an area of concern for the ANC,” explained political analyst Levy Ndou.

Typical of revolutionary movements

The ANC had ruled the roost in most of the country’s municipalities since the 1994 elections, when South Africa transitioned to democracy.

This is the most significant decrease in votes since then, but according to political analyst Andre Duvenhage, it is normal for revolutionary movements to lose support after 20 to 30 years of running things.

Duvenhage says revolutionary movements generally get large support due to their claims to the moral high ground, but factors such as low economic growth, and corruption often affect the parties’ support when they are actually in power.

This could continue to be the case in the 2024 elections, and the ANC returning to its former glory was highly unlikely, said Duvenhage.

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The ANC’s survival might come down to what happens at their 2022 elective conference, which could have huge implications on their performance in 2024, he said.

“We may see that the ANC is not a unity coming out of that election conference and this may have a severe influence on the political landscape. I am expecting changes. It is unlikely for the ANC to get absolute majority in 2024 and if there is a break-up [of the party] in the process, it may be even a worse case scenario for the ANC,” Duvenhage said.

This appeared to be a position echoed by comments from the ANC’s head of elections, Fikile Mbalula, who had tried to console party faithful on social media on Wednesday, by insisting the ANC had not lost the elections, but simply been the victims of coalitions formed by the opposition.

In response to a comment from the EFF’s Floyd Shivambu, pointing out the party’s apparent arrogance, which ostensibly led to the election outcomes, Mbalula conceded that the ANC might be heading toward a national defeat if they fail to convince the party faithful to head to the polls.

Coalitions the way of the future if ANC doesn’t correct course

While President Cyril Ramaphosa remarked on the local government election outcomes as “how democracy works”, Ndou said should coalitions be the new way of governance, the ANC might have a problem when it comes to national elections.

“If we are heading towards coalitions – this is how the ANC is going to perform nationally. The ANC is obviously going to have a problem. This will be treated as a wakeup call too.”

The ANC had blamed the low voter turn-out for their declined performance, but Ndou said this was the ANC’s own fault.

“They say a lot of people did not go to vote but they know the reasons why. There has been a lot of disputes on candidate lists. Their own branches were worried about the process of elections. They can’t expect the same people to be voting whilst they are worried about the process of elections. The ANC has to put its house in order.”

“The challenges within the ANC are not foreign. These are challenges which are within the party and which must be solved by the members of the party,” said Ndou.

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rorisangk@citizen.co.za