Thabo Mbeki boost for ANC in 2024?

The ANC’s regret at its “wrong decision” to recall former president Thabo Mbeki and to embrace him again is about nothing but catching votes, relying on his popularity, incorruptibility, party memory and his good governance track record, experts have said.

The ANC’s about-turn on Mbeki was not innocent at all, but showed Luthuli House’s desperation to look for anything it could use to get votes for next year’s elections.

University of South Africa political scientist Prof Dirk Kotze said: “The ANC has become very nervous about next year’s elections. They might want to use Mbeki in their election campaign but he has already indicated he is not going to participate.”

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The ANC unceremoniously removed Mbeki from power in September 2008, just over six months before his presidential term of office was to have ended, as they desperately wanted to install Jacob Zuma, who had just been elected as party president at Polokwane.

Mbeki was replaced with Kgalema Motlanthe as caretaker president, who served for only seven months before Zuma took over following the April 2009 general election.

Removing Mbeki from power was wrong

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said a few days ago that the decision to remove Mbeki from power was wrong.

It shouldn’t have happened that a leader who had done nothing wrong, or stolen any money should have been removed in that fashion just a few months before his term finished.

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He praised Mbeki for not resisting when was he entitled to refuse to go because he had done no wrong.

Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast from the Centre for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University said the ANC was hoping to use Mbeki’s popularity and stature to garner votes in 2024.

Both Breakfast and Kotze cited a recent poll that showed Mbeki was more popular than President Cyril Ramaphosa, which was significant for the ANC.

‘Not seen as corrupt’

Breakfast said the party could receive some votes for being honest about its mistake when it came to Mbeki.

The ANC had avoided responding to Mbeki, even when he recently criticised Ramaphosa’s weaknesses, because the party respected the former president.

“Mbeki is not seen as a corrupt leader and under him the economy grew well,” Breakfast said.

Kotze said since former president Nelson Mandela died, Mbeki remained the only symbol and side, and the period when the party was doing well.

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By embracing Mbeki again, they are saying the party should not simply be judged on its current failures but on its good history in government under Mbeki.

“The time of president Mbeki was one of the best times,” Kotze said, “with very high growth rate, there was less corruption than now and in general there was a good feeling about the situation.”

Ignoring weaknesses

The ANC had deliberately ignored Mbeki’s previous, weaknesses such as centralising political power in the presidency, his stance on HIV/Aids, his isolating his opponents and his intolerance of other people’s ideas and opinions, especially those of commentators and media.

“Mbeki’s stance on the HIV issue particularly made him most unpopular in the public’s eyes, not necessarily in the party’s.

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“The ANC currently ignores Mbeki’s past because he represents the good image of the party at the moment,” Kotze said.

But he cautioned against Mbalula’s spontaneous utterances on serious matters.

“I never got the idea that Fikile Mbalula is a strategic thinker,” he said.

“He sometimes responds on the spot, almost instinctive responses from him.”