Steenhuisen vs Phalatse: DA race crucial for all opposition

All eyes will this weekend be on the elective conference of the country’s biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), where current party leader John Steenhuisen and former executive mayor for the City of Johannesburg Dr Mpho Phalatse will be facing off.

There has been a lot of talk about who would make the better leader ahead of this crucial conference, which comes shortly before next year’s national government elections.

In a recent podcast interview with The Citizen, Phalatse said she believes she has what it takes to lead the country’s official opposition.

ALSO READ: Mpho Phalatse on why she thinks she has what it takes to lead the DA

What do the experts say?

Time for fresh blood at the top?

Several political analysts who spoke to The Citizen on Thursday, are of the opinion that Phalatse is what the DA needs ahead of the 2024 polls.

ALSO READ: 2024 Elections: ‘End is nigh’ for ANC

Sysman Motloung from the North West University (NWU) says the DA’s elective conference is vital in the bigger picture of South Africa’s party politics, regardless of whether Steenhuisen or Phalatse come out on top.

“What matters is the kind of policies and programmes the conference will enact to resonate with the pertinent material conditions and political vision for the future of the country,” said Motloung.

“Steenhuisen is a stronger candidate in the race, but I do think Phalatse could be the better option and it could be that Steenhuisen has a stronger alliance (faction) in the party, which makes him an obvious winner.”

Another political analyst, Piet Croucamp, says the problem with the DA is that the party is incredibly predictable.

“It is expected that Steenhuisen will be re-elected as a party leader but I think Phalatse is a better choice at this stage, and I think that’s what the DA needs, but I don’t think they realise that.

“I don’t think that the way they set themselves up in terms of the competitive narrative from the inside allows Phalatse a fair chance to compete for the top post which she is more suitable for, given the realities of the 2024 general elections and the likeliness of coalition politics that may follow as a consequence of that election in the National Assembly (NA),” said Croucamp.

“The DA is the biggest of the small parties and if there is an opportunity for coalitions in 2024, the DA will be leading that coalition and I simply can’t foresee Steenhuisen becoming the next President of South Africa, which means the DA will enter those coalition arrangements and discussions at a severe disadvantage.”

What does Phalatse bring to the table?

Croucamp is of the opinion Phalatse is the only candidate who can get black South Africans to vote for the DA.

“There is a general reluctance from people who don’t find the ANC to be serving their interests to find the DA as an alternative, and she can present the DA as an alternative for those people who decided not to vote in the elections, and also those people who are in disagreement with the ANC…” Croucamp added.

Prof André Duvenhage, Research Director at North West University Potchefstroom Campus, however, says he does not believe Steenhuisen has too much to fear from Phalatse.

“I believe Steenhuisen will definitely be re-elected as leader of the DA, but I am not foreseeing major changes in the structures and the systems of the DA.

“My take is it will probably be new faces here and there, but generally speaking, the status quo will remain with the two kingpins in the party, Helen Zille and Steenhuisen,” said Duvenhage.

Prof Dirk Kotze agreed, saying while it is difficult to predict the outcomes of this weekend’s elective conference, it appears Steenhuisen is ahead of Phalatse.

“Phalatse is in a sense a newcomer to the DA, as she has not been in any of the senior positions of the party, but she will use her position as former mayor as a main campaigning focus area. But I think if she is willing to stay in the DA, she certainly has the potential to become a senior person in the party.

“I don’t think this conference is a watershed event for the DA and it looks relatively more like a normal congress with no major matters that are at this stage on the agenda,” Kotze said.

The Citizen approached both candidates for comment on their expectations for this weekend and why they think they can assist the DA to gain ground on the African National Congress (ANC).

Phalatse had not responded to questions sent to her at the time of publishing this article.

Attempts to get Steenhuisen’s thoughts drew a blank, as he was unhappy with negative media coverage from The Citizen, according to his spokesperson Charity McCord.