Smaller is the big winner – poll shows South Africans want alternatives

The tables have turned for the ANC, according to a Social Research Foundation poll – but experts say the poll showed more South Africans are gravitating to smaller parties.

EFF support plunges

The poll showed the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) had seen its support plunge by about half in the last eight months before its national shutdown on the 20 March, landing at least 6% for the 2024 general elections, compared to the 12% in July local elections, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) would get 24%.

However, elections monitoring expert Wayne Sussman said while it was important to welcome polls that gave an insight into to what South Africans are thinking, “it’s also a snap shot. It’s a long time until the 2024 elections and a lot can happen”.

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“Crime and load shedding can get under control or even worsen, and those are some of the major issues which can influence the elections,” he said.

“All the parties have it in their ability to turn things around, because they still have a long time between now and the elections.”

Sussman said by-election trends suggested the ANC and the EFF had a major challenge ahead with KwaZulu-Natal, “which is one of the populist provinces.

If they are unable to make up those numbers in other parts of the country, it’s clear they are going to struggle in the elections next year”.

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ANC, EFF and DA suffered in the 2021 polls

“Gauteng has most of the voters in SA, but the ANC, DA and EFF all struggled in the 2021 local government elections,” he said.

“They didn’t achieve what they wanted to achieve, so if you’re losing ground in KZN and Gauteng, you’re unlikely to replicate what you achieved in the previous elections.”

By-election trends were also suggesting South Africans were looking at alternatives that were very particular to their communities.

“We’re seeing a big turn back to the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), for a variety of reasons.

One of those could mean voters feel ‘we’d rather support a party that can represent us, which we know has KZN and Zulu interests at heart’.

“There is also a turn to the Freedom Front Plus, and it tells us a lot of white, Afrikaans voters are saying we’d rather support a party that has our specific community needs at heart,” Sussman said.

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Smaller parties looking stronger

According to the poll, some smaller parties look set to put in a stronger showing, with the IFP doubling to 6%, assuming a 66% turnout level, while backing for the FF+ rises from 2% to 3%.

Political analyst prof Andre Duvenhage said poll bases were constantly changing, making it difficult to make an absolute conclusion, “so the numbers are drastically changing, but they are surely fluctuating”.

There are certain patterns we need to understand and accommodate, one of which is bigger parties towards the end of election campaigns are gaining momentum,” he said.

Identity politics was becoming more prominent, especially with small parties. “The reality of this is more coalition politics and at the moment we are not really geared for coalition politics.

“We’ve seen what has happened in places like Tshwane and Johannesburg,” he said. reitumetsem@citizen.co.za