Sisulu unlikely to get support from patriarchal KZN for ANC presidency

Patriarchy and tribal tendencies could stand in the way of ANC presidential hopeful Lindiwe Sisulu being accepted over fellow candidate Zweli Mkhize as the choice by the party’s KwaZulu-Natal structures.

Since Mkhize hinted at challenging Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC elective conference in December, the question has emerged as to whether he and Sisulu will join forces to oppose Ramaphosa.

But if they agree to work together, Sisulu will not be favoured in KZN.

Commentators said because of being a woman and a non-Zulu, Sisulu would battle to gain acceptance in a province that was notorious for old-styled patriarchy and tribal bias in choosing leadership.

Mkhize is a local Zulu man.

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The late IFP national chair, Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi, settled for that position as she was not accepted to succeed then IFP president Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

She left to establish the National Freedom Party.

Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotze, from the University of South Africa, said Sisulu was in a more difficult position than Mkhize, if they decided to join forces.

The two are presently campaigning against each other.

“I don’t see a coordinated campaign between the two. Sisulu has never been part of a bigger team, she always preferred to be on her own. I don’t see her changing her strategy.

“But if there is some joint campaign, they are going to split the votes. At the moment they are campaigning against each other,” Kotze said.

The analyst said Mkhize was targeting KZN and the period in the run-up to the provincial ANC conference was crucial to win as much local support as possible.

North-West University’s Prof André Duvenhage said both leaders were influential.

Sisulu being a woman would factor strongly in parts of KZN, where power was exercised over women.

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But Mkhize and Sisulu would be able to find each other as they go along.

“It will be interesting to see who becomes presidential candidate and deputy candidate. I think any of the two can make it. I think their ability to campaign successfully will, in a way, decide the candidate,” Duvenhage said.

With the ANC national conference in December, the country would see serious mobilisation against Ramaphosa by various groupings.

The radical economic transformation (RET) grouping was likely to field their own candidate to oppose him.

“I have no doubt there is going to be serious mobilisation.

“We can expect a very aggressive campaign coming from the RET and related groupings. These are the first moves. I can read the hand of Jacob Zuma and Ace Magashule in the background regarding Northern Cape,” Duvenhage said.

Another analyst, Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast, from Nelson Mandela University, said as the two did not have widespread national support, they might decide to team up against Ramaphosa.

Breakfast said Sisulu was most likely to become the face of the RET grouping.

ALSO READ: KZN lining up the pieces against Ramaphosa ahead of ANC conference

“We can see behind closed doors there are manoeuvres. She is going to be the image of the RET and Dr Mkhize might be her deputy candidate,” he said.

“Ramaphosa is going to be back, but the RET forces are going to pose a threat to him. It’s going to be interesting who becomes his deputy because we have many people interested in the position,” Breakfast said.

Ramaphosa had many candidates in his camp, such as Minister of Justice Ronald Lamola, Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, party treasurer-general Paul Mashatile and David Mabuza, vying for the position.

But it has been strongly suggested he would choose Defence Minister Thandi Modise.

Her leadership experience and the need for a female deputy president were in her favour.