‘Growing trend of unstable political coalitions,’ warn analysts

Amid the ousting of the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) Dr Mpho Phalatse as Joburg mayor, analysts yesterday warned of the growing trend of unstable political coalitions, with Ekurhuleni and Tshwane set to follow the precedent created in Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay.

This comes as smaller parties emerged as kingmakers behind the political volatility at local government level – a development that could lead to collapse in the councils, rendering those holding leadership positions vulnerable to being unseated.

Commenting on coalitions, where the ANC mounted a successful motion of no confidence in Phalatse in Joburg, and the DA voted out an ANC government in Nelson Mandela Bay, University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze, independent politics analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga and University of Pretoria political lecturer Roland Henwood were unanimous:

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“Despite being shaky, South African voters should brace themselves for more coalition upsets.” Said Kotze: “While things may look messy or unstable, coalitions are more inclusive – not necessarily a bad thing, because for a long time we had two dominant political parties. Out of the 257 councils, 72 are led by coalition governments.

“This is a significant number, showing that majority parties’ support is shrinking. This is indicative of the fact that there are no new political parties emerging. What the DA is learning in the process is that you cannot trust some smaller parties.

“We have instances where parties are willing to cross the floor within coalitions – driven by pragmatism or opportunism. “Take the case of the Patriotic Alliance in the Cape, which was in a coalition in the West Coast with the DA, then moved into a coalition with the ANC.

In Central Karoo, it forged a coalition with the ANC, while in a coalition with the DA in Tshwane, Johannesburg and in Ekurhuleni.

“Learning who to trust is what parties are grappling with. The same notion applies to political parties experiencing internal problems, with no clarity as to who is in charge. Congress of the People and the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania [PAC] are examples of this,”said Kotze.

“In forming a coalition with Cope or the PAC, you may not know which leadership you are working with.” Arguing that coalitions among bigger parties created stability in government, Kotze said the Turkish model could be a solution for the country.

“In Turkey, only parties who have won above 10% gain seats in the legislature.” Said Mathekga: “The problem with coalitions is that they are not based on shared goals, rendering them vulnerable to sporadic political events.

“Even the newly-installed councils in Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay will become vulnerable.”

While coalitions are set to be a growing feature of SA’s political landscape, Henwood said the changes were driven by “personal interests of party leaders and individuals”.

He said the Economic Freedom Fighters had previously vowed never to cooperate with the ANC.

“The outcome of Nelson Mandela Bay also shows the effects of the style of politics playing out in Johannesburg – political and individual interests above everything, leading to imploding governance,” he said.

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