Resumption of political activities could spell trouble for SA – experts

While the decision by President Cyril Ramaphosa to move South Africa to level 1 was hailed as a bold step to open up the economy, experts have warned that the country, gripped by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, remained far from reaching normality.

In his address to the nation over the weekend, Ramaphosa announced easing restrictions on political, religious, social and cultural gatherings – subject to limitations on size, adherence to social distancing and other health protocols, with the maximum number of people allowed at any gathering being set at 100 people indoors or 250 outdoors.

Political experts yesterday warned that the relaxation on political gatherings would have limitations and could be short-lived in the event of a future virus spike.

University of Pretoria political lecturer Roland Henwood cautioned that allowing for gatherings to take place did not normalise politics “as most limitations still remain”.

According to Henwood, the lifting of some restrictions did not make normal political campaigning possible, because political parties would be unable to hold huge rallies.

Said Henwood: “While the president’s announcement does allow for more freedom of movement and some activities, the test will be on whether politicians follow this.

“The president is under enormous pressure – though not from the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) on political gatherings. This is all about the economy and normalising life as far as possible to support economic activity.

“Political parties will have to plan and execute campaigning very differently – in line with restrictions and the new normal.

“This may imply moving more to online-type campaigns and interactions with smaller groups of voters.”

Henwood described the threat of a third wave of Covid-19 as being “real, given what is playing out in other countries”.

“This will limit political activities in the foreseeable future – requiring responsible engagement by politicians with the electorate,” added Henwood.

Independent political analyst Ralph Mathekga said the easing of restrictions on political gatherings meant “doing things reflecting the world we live in”.

“What politicians should know is that it won’t be at all normal this time. Conventional political gatherings belong to yesterday,” said Mathekga.

Sanusha Naidu of the Institute for Global Dialogue, said Ramaphosa was not pressured by the EFF’s letter in coming to the decision to relax political gatherings.

“I am not sure one can correctly argue that the latest developments are due to the letter the EFF wrote to the president on normalising political activity,” said Naidu.

“Given the fact that Covid-19 has receded due to the infection rate no longer as astronomical as before and the mortality rate down, I think it was a matter of time before the president would have eased lockdown restrictions to level 1.”

Naidu has predicted intense political activity during the opening up of gatherings, in the runup to the local government polls.

“This has huge political implications in that you have local government elections later in the year and by-elections this month,” said Naidu.

“By-elections, which were postponed, have to happen first if you have vacancies to be filled at ward level, before local government elections can take place.

“The concern is that as soon as political gatherings, campaigns and manifesto launches by parties take place, you may see a spike in the infection rates.

“To be able to create normalisation in structured conditions, where the situation is unpredictable, uncertain and untenable, is very difficult.

“I don’t think we are entering normality in our political landscape,” said Naidu.

“It is okay to open up the economy and the space of political gatherings, but it all depends on how the rules of social distancing, wearing of masks and having enough PPE (personal protective equipment) measures in place at the open and indoor venues – a bigger challenge for political parties.”

brians@citizen.co.za

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