Ramaphosa’s survival depends on Mkhwebane’s demise – analyst

The proposed removal of Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane via a parliamentary motion from the Democratic Alliance is set to further divide the governing ANC and renew pre-Nasrec infighting among its factions.

This as it emerged that a group led by former North West premier Supra Mahumapelo met in Cape Town during the ANC January 8 Statement rally in Kimberley to strategise about their defence of Mkhwebane against all attempts to remove her. The group resolved that Mahumapelo must make a public statement to oppose the DA motion and distance the ANC from claims that it will support the move.

The ANC is divided between members who want Mkhwebane to stay, such as Mahumapelo, and those gunning for her within the ANC-led alliance. A scenario similar to the 2017 divisions among ANC MPs over whether they should support an EFF motion of no confidence against Jacob Zuma has developed.

The ensuing battle has been fronted by calls from the South African Communist Party for Mkhwebane to go and countercalls from Zuma-aligned members. This could undermine party unity – a project led by President Cyril Ramaphosa at the party’s 54th national conference in December 2017.

The failure of the unity attempt will be regarded as Ramaphosa’s failure to unite the party, which has remained factionalised since just before the acrimonious Polokwane elective conference in 2007.

While the SACP, along with certain NEC members, made their voices heard about how they felt about Mkhwebane, the Zuma followers are fighting back on her behalf.

In his defence of Mkhwebane, Mahumapelo said they would not support the DA motion in parliament because Mkhwebane was doing a sterling job as public protector. Mahumapelo was rebuked by Luthuli House for the statement, which said he was speaking in his personal capacity. Some members said he spoke on behalf of one faction because many ANC MPs wanted Mkhwebane out.

She is accused of having made numerous blunders and judgment errors, including in the Absa/Bankorp investigation. The Constitutional Court rejected her findings on the matter and ordered she pay costs personally.

Mkhwebane last week criticised Modise for targeting her. She said the new rules formulated by parliament to enable MPs to remove a head of a chapter 9 institution were unconstitutional and unlawful because she and other heads were not consulted about them.

Mkhwebane asked parliament to stop the process and vowed to challenge the rules in court. The rules were made in terms of the constitution and target all chapter 9 heads.

Modise, reacting to Mkhwebane, said the DA’s substantive motion complied with the form requirements in the rules.

“The Speaker alone may not unduly obstruct the right of any MP to table a duly compliant motion submitted in line with section 194 of the Constitution. The determination that the motion complies with the rules does not imply that a decision has been made as to the required prima facie assessment, as the independent panel of experts is yet to be established,” a statement from parliament read.

Parties have until Friday to submit preferred nominees to constitute the panel.

The statement said the panel of experts must conduct and finalise a preliminary assessment, which will include an invitation to the holder of the public office to comment on the substance of the motion.

Political analyst Andre Duvenhage said it was clear that Mahumapelo was mobilising the Zuma faction within the ANC to rise up in defence of Mkhwebane while antagonising the faction against Ramaphosa.

“Without any doubt, this is a very important test of the Ramaphosa lines versus the other lines. This is a big test for Ramaphosa in particular,” Duvenhage said.

The analyst said that at present Ramaphosa’s support within the ANC was not clear cut.

Mahumapelo’s public statement was an attempt to mobilise against Ramaphosa in favour of secretary-general Ace Magashule.

“If the plan to remove Mkhwebane does not succeed, it will be evidence that Ramaphosa is a lame-duck president. I suspect that if he (Ramaphosa) does not succeed on this, he will not survive,” Duvenhage said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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