Ramaphosa’s soft hand to blame for increase in public violence – report

A report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa’s inability to exercise control and grease palms within ANC as his predecessor Jacob Zuma did, may be to blame for a significant spike in violent protests across the country.

According to the report, protests have spiked significantly during Ramaphosa’s tenure, while the numbers were at their lowest during Zuma’s second term, due to the former president’s willingness to use “brown envelope” politics to maintain peace.

The report, titled ‘Dangerous elites: protest, conflict and the future of South Africa’ found that the “unmanageable” structures and processes of the ANC’s factions spilled into society, causing protests and unrest.

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A link between ANC events and intense internal contestation led to a rise in “community-related” and political protests, the report found.

An example is the firing of former finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in March 2017, which correlated with a spike in protests in July of that year and organisations like ‘Save South Africa’ along with opposition parties and organisations marching to the Union Buildings.

Public unrest and protests had remained quiet during Zuma’s second term, but saw a sharp rise from the end of 2017, suggesting Ramaphosa did not have the same autocratic power over the ANC as Zuma did, said the ISS.

The issue at play is the Ramaphosa presidency attempting to clean up government and corruption within the party, which antagonised certain individuals.

Political economy analyst and director of Political Futures Consultancy, Daniel Silke said the report was an accurate reflection of the issues.

“I think the issue is that… in the Ramaphosa presidency there is an attempt to reduce patronage-based politics, or what we call brown-paper envelope politics, which we saw under Jacob Zuma. There has been an attempt to clean up government, there has been an attempt to try and eradicate some of the internal corruption that has been part for the better part of the last decade, if not longer.

Once you begin to reform or clean up your own political party, clearly you antagonise those individuals who have enjoyed free reign as they had during the Jacob Zuma years.”

Daniel Silke

Protests coincide with ANC events

The report plotted protests, changes in service delivery, and unemployment against the chronology of ANC events.

“The coincidence between escalation of protests and moments of ANC drama was clear and straightforward,” the report claims.

July 2017 saw a spike in protests, particularly in the City of Tshwane, following events that led to the cabinet reshuffle which removed Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas respectively.

This was also a period when former presidents including Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe called for Zuma to go. In addition, the ‘Guptagate’ scandal also surfaced during that period.

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Protests showed a similar pattern in the worst affected province of KwaZulu-Natal in 2016, when the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) was considering whether to charge Zuma with corruption. 2

Then the Constitutional Court (ConCourt) judgement on Nkandla and a motion to impeach Zuma, which saw protests in the build-up and aftermath of the 2019 elections.

And the most recent and violent were the July 2021 unrest, with a report from the expert panel into the July 2021 Unrest confirming that the incident was a result of Zuma’s imprisonment.

Zuma’s ‘control’ of ANC just patronage

There was a clear decline in protests in major metros such as City of Tshwane, City of Johannesburg, City of Cape Town, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay during Zuma’s second term.

However, this was a period of opposition to his rule and the period of state capture and protest activity was muted.

Zuma made moves to control internal contestation such as repurposing state-owned entities and other government entities for personal enrichment, and to primarily finance factional political activities, the report said.

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Silke agreed, stating the attempts by Ramaphosa to reform the party hindered those who had access to opportunities during Zuma’s years.

“If you are attempting to clean up the rot, you then put yourself at risk. Part of that we see playing out in political protests, which didn’t occur under the Zuma years because Zuma used the patronage politics to placate his own party members.

“I think we are in an era where the reform initiated by Ramaphosa is creating unease and anger among many in the ANC, who find they don’t have the same access to resources of opportunities that they had during the Jacob Zuma years.”

Assassinations however, rose during Zuma’s period, which the ISS states it indicates violence and intimidation playing a key role with patronage in “keeping hostilities in check”.

The findings in the report are nothing new, and for a long-time analysts and experts have been writing about the effects of ANC’s instability.

A warning should be taken from ANC that it heralded an attempt at counter-revolution, said security expert Eldred De Klerk.

“We need to take a serious warning from within the ANC of a counter-revolution. From an intelligence security sector, we call it a counter-systemic threat.

“What we mean by that is that our state institutions have systematically been undermined and eroded, so the capability of them has been systematically weakened.

“The people, like Zuma’s like others, think that the rules of the country don’t apply to them. Or that they are above everything else.”

He said the blame for the unrest in July should not solely lie on the arrest of Zuma but a “political surprise” as there were indicators and warnings, said De Klerk.

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“What the state institutions did, is suffer what we call a political surprise. The lens from what we look at what is happening is not the same as the simple narrative.

“These are classical intelligence stuff and we need to remember who Zuma is, he was the head of the Umkhonto WeSizwe and head of the intelligence unit of the ANC,” he said.

Silke, like the ISS, predict that the situation is going to worsen. He said it was time for Ramaphosa to take a stand.

“If his victory remains messy like the last time, you will see this continuing. He has to stamp his authority and has to elect other ‘Ramaphosa’s’ of the world,” said Silke.

rorisangk@citizen.co.za