Ramaphosa’s reshuffle puzzle – What to do with dead weight allies?

President Cyril Ramaphosa finds himself in a tricky situation ahead of his imminent Cabinet reshuffle, with several of his perceived political allies having fared less than impressively in their Cabinet positions, and being prime candidates for the chop.

The Cabinet reshuffle matter has been a hot talking point for a while now, with the myriad challenges facing South Africa, from the electricity crisis, crime and service delivery, prompting calls for fresh ideas and fresh blood.

Speaking to The Citizen, political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the big question remains on who Ramaphosa will leave out when he reshuffles his Cabinet.

“I think he (Ramaphosa) is thinking strategically, hence his did not rush with the announcement of his Cabinet reshuffle, because the reshuffle on its own has a political meaning for next year’s general election.

“Will he get rid of the ministers who supported him, including those who have been speaking out against him? For instance, if he let go of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, it might be difficult for him to even go and campaign in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) ahead of next year’s elections,” said Breakfast.

Some of the ministers whose heads have been called for include minister for the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) Gwede Mantashe as well as Pravin Gordhan who heads the ministry of Public Enterprise.

“Had it not been for Mantashe, Ramaphosa would have resigned and therefore any move by Ramaphosa to reshuffle Mantashe could be seen as a betrayal on his (Ramaphosa’s) part.

“I think Ramaphosa is being circumspect and understands all the political factors that are at play,” he said.

According to Breakfast, Ramaphosa will be employing political survival tactics when it comes to reshuffling his Cabinet, stressing that he will also dish out favors to those who have been supporting him.

At the height of the scandal at Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala game farm, Mantashe was among those who defended Ramaphosa.

ALSO READ: Phala Phala farmgate: Ramaphosa a victim of robbery, not a thief – Mantashe

Another case of ANC before country?

“I strongly believe that people should be appointed on merit and not based on political allegiance.

“If you look at people like the minister of Police Bheki Cele, the crime situation has gone out of control under his leadership, while on the other hand we have seen people a lot of student protests at institutions of higher learning where Blade Nzimande is minister of Higher Education, but they might still remain in Cabinet because their political capital is key,” said Breakfast.

The worrying quarterly crime statistics released by Cele last week also saw several people calling for his axing due to his inability to deal with crime.

ALSO READ: SA crime stats: Cele says human behaviour bigger problem than guns

Another political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage is of the opinion the reason for the delay in the Cabinet reshuffle has to do with what he calls the complicated reconfiguration of the broad church of the African National Congress (ANC), as well as how to accommodate all conflicting interests.

“Touching on any interest can be risky for the president and my assessment is that the president is not very strong, and he can run into trouble if he does not connect himself with the right people.

“We also have the Andre De Ruyter episode which directly or indirectly implicates ministers who are very close to Ramaphosa, and I think he has a big problem specifically with Mantashe and how to accommodate Mantashe, who came to his rescue during the Phala Phala scandal matter in Parliament,” said Duvenhage.

ALSO READ: ‘Cyanide poisoning’: Eskom CEO André De Ruyter opens attempted murder case

Another political analyst, Sysman Motloung, says the President should be finding himself under pressure, especially when faced with the prospect of having to keep or release ministers who have differed with him in public.

“However, ministers differing or contradicting him in public cannot be the sole reason for releasing a minister.

“Rather, he would do well to increase the number of young people in the cabinet, as the ANC is in the phase of generational transition and succession planning is crucial at this point. He should not miss this opportunity,” said Motloung.

Cabinet reshuffle possibilities

Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, according to Duvenhage, has definitely reached her sell-by date, but Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma could still be a dark horse.

Dlamini-Zuma late last year defied the ANC when she voted in favour of the Section 89 report into Phala Phala.

“Dlamini-Zuma has support from within ANC structures and can be accommodated one way or another, and she can also be a disaster kingpin, making her position very interesting. But I’m not expecting a cabinet with radical changes, but more of a piecemeal incremental process… Maybe new faces, a bit of reshuffling,” Duvenhage said.

Are the alliance partners on board?

“The president has solidified his position by the look of things, with no one challenging his authority openly.

“Unless there are underhand maneuvers happening, which I doubt there are,” Motloung added.

Meanwhile, spokesperson for one of the ANC-led alliance partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP), Dr Alex Mashilo said he was not at liberty to disclose the contents of the consultative meeting they held with Ramaphosa in recent days.

“We appreciate the prerogative of the president to think about change and objective evaluation must always inform change.

“Our general secretary Solly Mapaila on Friday said the discussions were based on evaluation and principles, but I am not in a position to divulge the contents of the meeting because it was confidential meeting,” Mashilo said.

Mashilo stressed that it is clear what is needed, in terms of imperatives, is the end to the load shedding crisis, addressing the unemployment crisis, poverty, as well as criminality.

On Monday afternoon, media reports were suggesting that Ramaphosa was consulting with his ANC colleagues.