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Ramaphosa’s promises at last year’s Sona only half-met – analysts
The Covid vaccine programme kicked off as promised but economic recovery was slow and unemployment soared.
President Cyril Ramaphosa responds to the State of the Nation (Sona) debate in the National Assembly on 18 February 2021 in Cape Town. Picture: Gallo Images/Jeffrey Abrahams
When analysing the four priorities President Cyril Ramaphosa laid out in his previous State of the Nation Address (Sona), there were a number of shortfalls to his promises, including an increased unemployment rate, low economic growth and failure to take action against those who fail him and the state, experts said.
Ramaphosa will be giving his 2022 State of the Nation Address on Thursday where he would again be laying out the country’s affairs.
Looking at his address last year, the president listed four overriding priorities for 2021: defeating the Covid pandemic, accelerating economic recovery, creating jobs and fighting corruption.
Covid vaccines kicked off but lagged
While the Covid vaccination programme kicked off in May last year as promised, with a total of 30.25 million vaccines administered by Monday evening, the target of vaccinating at least a third of the population was still far from being reached.
Stellenbosch University epidemiologist Dr Jo Barnes said this was because of vaccine hesitancy as a result of poor education and awareness efforts by government.
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“We don’t really have anti-vaxxers – they are just a small group. The largest group is the vaccine-hesitant and they can be persuaded with the right approach. [The government] didn’t really rope in a lot of people into bringing awareness. They could have asked churches and sports groups who have contact with the general public to do this, and it seems they didn’t.”
Losing confidence in government due to certain unexplainable reasons for the hard lockdown restrictions in 2020 also led some to lose trust in the country’s leadership, Barnes said.
“They had decision-making structures that were not transparent and didn’t justify properly to even those who are in the profession. A lot of the population got angry and some of the stuff they didn’t understand either – like the prohibition of open-toe sandals and only buying raw food. That made the population distrustful… of the government. Now the same government is trying to tell people to get vaccinated. The trust won’t disappear overnight,” said Barnes.
“If [Ramaphosa] can give a heartfelt appeal to the people during his address to get vaccinated and explain that the more people get Covid, the longer it drags and it puts their jobs in danger, people will feel that the government is trying to use them to stop the disease and that is how a vaccination gets sold to some people.”
What economic transformation? What jobs?
During his address last year, Ramaphosa said the country’s unemployment rate stood at 30.8% but that “we expect to see a strong recovery in employment by the end of the year”. That did not happen.
Statistics SA figures show that 660,000 more people lost their jobs in the third quarter of 2021, bringing the country’s total unemployed people to 14.3 million. The unemployment rate in that quarter increased to 34.9%, the highest recorded official unemployment rate since 2008.
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Economic analyst Professor Bonke Dumisa said the wrong approach was used, instead of changing the education curriculum which currently does not offer courses of relevance today.
“South Africa has a structural unemployment challenge – which is that our education system is not producing people who are geared for our type of economy. It is producing people who may have been okay for the economy of 1954 and not for today. Most people after matric still want to go to universities but there are so many graduates who are unemployed and don’t know what to do with their degrees afterwards,” he said.
“But the trade unions won’t even want to have that discussion about changing the core curriculum at schools and retraining the teachers so, that is where the problem is… and we keep blaming government for unemployment… I hope he doesn’t say anything about the unemployment rate this week because people will be saying he is lying.”
The country’s economic growth shrunk by 1.5% in the third quarter of 2021 while it dipped by 6% during the same period in 2020 as compared to 2019. The largest falls were in manufacturing, trade and agriculture.
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Issues of salary increases raised by trade unions should also be addressed by the president, said Dumisa.
“There are trade unions like Numsa demanding salary increases of about 15%. How do you strike for 15% when the economy is on a downward move?”
Ramaphosa made effort with corruption issues
While other priorities appeared to have not met their targets, there were strides made by the president when it came to combating corruption, as prioritised in last year’s address.
This extends to the setting up of commissions of inquiries and receiving of the first two parts of the state capture report this year. This showed he was committed to doing something, said political analyst Professor Lesiba Teffo.
“He has done enough and perhaps even a lot… he set up commissions which were open and he was transparent on what he wants to do, what he committed to doing. But alone, he can’t achieve this and needs the help of those whom he deployed,” said Teffo.
Ramaphosa was, however, criticised for failing to take action against those who failed him during the unrest and insurrection last year. Instead, those responsible remained in power or were redeployed.
“That is where his failure comes from. If you look at the insurrection, the police, defence force and intelligence failed. Ramaphosa fails to the extent that he doesn’t take action against those who failed him. This includes [Police Minister] Bheki Cele, [National Police Commissioner] General Khehla Sitole, former State Security Agency Minister Ayanda Dlodlo and former Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula.
When it comes to the stepping down of former Health Minister Zweli Mkhize, Teffo said the former minister might have felt some pressure from both society and Ramaphosa.
“The public already knows what the speech is going to be about. People don’t want words. People want action… The more he talks, the more support and confidence he loses from the people,” said Teffo.
DA leader John Steenhuisen shared similar sentiments on Tuesday in what he describes as the “true” state of the nation, stating the same script is played out each year.
“None of the promised economic reforms materialise. None of the energy reforms materialise. None of the big new investments materialise. And not one ANC cadre or politician implicated in corruption is convicted by the National Prosecuting Authority,” said Steenhuisen.
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