Ramaphosa’s grace coming to end?

It was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s last chance to take the country into his confidence last night, ahead of the national elections.

Ramaphosa was expected to announce the date for the national elections within 15 days of the State of the Nation Address, according to Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) had previously indicated the elections could be held anywhere from May to August, provided Ramaphosa issued a proclamation this month.

Constitutionally, South Africa was mandated to hold elections within 90 days of the end of the term of the corresponding session of parliament in May.

Announcement delay to serve interest of the ANC

A political analyst said Ramaphosa’s delay in the announcement of the date for the national elections was to serve the interests of the ANC, as it would result in more parties registering and the fragmentation of opposition parties.

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According to Goodenough Mashego, Ramaphosa might have delayed the announcement of the election date because once it was set, it would be gazetted, and it would no longer be possible for political formations to register.

“So, the later the date, the more people are going to register parties and the more the opposition is going to be fragmented, which strengthens the ANC when it comes to elections,” he said.

He believed “the more the merrier” would be an effective strategy for the ANC.

Election date will be confirmed this month

Magwenya confirmed Ramaphosa would reveal the date of this year’s elections this month.

He said the president would issue a proclamation “soon after announcing” the election date.

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“There shouldn’t be a gap between the time he announces and the time he proclaims,” he said.

“It all depends on his schedule on that particular day he will announce, but often we don’t have a huge gap between the announcement and proclamation.”

With the National Assembly possibly set to be dissolved before the expiry of its term and by the announcement of the election date, Mashego said Ramaphosa would not risk changing his Cabinet pending the election.

President must dissolve National Assembly if:

According to Section 50 of the constitution, the president must dissolve the National Assembly if:

• The Assembly has adopted a resolution to dissolve with a supporting vote of a majority of its members; and
• Three years have passed since the Assembly was elected.

Mashego said Ramaphosa would not make a change to his Cabinet because the sixth administration was reaching the end of its time in office.

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“So, I don’t see him making any changes, especially given the fact that there is no pressure to remove anyone who might have underperformed,” he said.

“I don’t think a shuffle is going to happen.”

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma retiring from parliament

Minister in the Presidency for Women, Youth and Persons with Disabilities Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma last month revealed she would retire from parliament during its next term.

Dlamini-Zuma was nominated by ANC branches to return to parliament on the national list.

However, the 74 year old said there was no need for the ANC electoral committee to schedule an interview with her as part of the public representative list process ahead of the elections, as she would not be available.

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IEC’s targets

The IEC had targeted 39.7 million people for the elections, and 27.4 million have registered to vote.

In the 2019 national and provincial elections, the voters’ roll stood at 26.7 million eligible voters.

This means there were 700 000 more people registered than for the last elections.

Voter turnout in 2019 was 66.05%. With a similar turnout this year, only 18 million people would turn up at the polling stations.