Power struggle in GNU as ANC eyes future without the DA

The ANC could be preparing for a post-DA era, but there are doubts the party will go, or if the ANC has the power to fire it from the government of national unity (GNU) without opening a can of worms.

This is the view of political analysts who also believe the DA is not about to call it quits any time soon.

Instead, the party appeared to want to stay put in the GNU, as it was backtracking on its threat to leave, they said.

Analysts see DA staying

Political analyst and a lecturer from North-West University Dominic Maphaka said the ANC is gearing up for a possible DA exit and is also leveraging on the availability of other parties to keep its rival in the GNU.

Alternative partners are used as a bargaining chip to sustain a coalition government that is preferred by the business community, which boosts the government’s growth and development objectives.

However, he said, this did not mean the DA is about to vacate the multiparty coalition. This is despite the ANC’s strong rhetoric slanted towards disgruntlement with the DA.

Mbalula’s remarks point to ANC preparing for exit

Maphaka said recent statements by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula appeared to envisage that the DA could leave the GNU.

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“As the mouthpiece of the ANC, Mbalula demonstrates that the party is preparing itself for the post-co-governing arrangement with the DA. The party is not planning to push the DA out, but it is preparing to fill up the vacuum that the rival DA could leave,” he said.

“Building on its ideological posture and policy position, the ANC foresees constant and inevitable squabbles that will rise from time to time when the former liberation movement seeks to implement its policy resolutions on transformation. Against this backdrop, the ANC thinks the DA would leave the GNU, a development that would necessitate cooperation with new partners.”

He said the DA was unlikely to leave the GNU any time soon, also considering that the party backtracked from its threat to exit the GNU over the Land Expropriation Act.

“The only time that the DA could leave the GNU is in the aftermath of the 2026 local government elections, especially in the post-2027 ANC national policy and elective conference,” Maphaka said.

Legal complications could hinder DA removal

Political analyst Prof Susan Booysen questioned the ANC’s power to remove the DA from the GNU as that was unclear from the statement of intent (SOI) signed by the party.

She envisaged that there could be trouble if the ANC tried to kick the DA out anyway. The SOI required the ANC to consult other parties to bring in new partners and for President Cyril Ramaphosa to appoint Cabinet ministers, or to make changes in the executive.

Booysen said the SOI was silent on the need for a consensus in decision-making among the parties.

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The ANC’s wish to get rid of the DA is just a wish that could land the party in trouble if it went ahead to remove the DA, she said.

“If it was a labour matter, what the ANC is trying to do could be described as constructive dismissal,” Booysen said.

Maphaka and Booysen were reacting to Mbalula’s statement that the party wanted a reset of the coalition – a view that many interpreted as saying the ANC wanted the DA to go.

Clash between Ramaphosa and Mashatile

Also, some reports cited a clash between Ramaphosa and his deputy Paul Mashatile – who is said to be pushing for a DA removal in favour of the EFF and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party.

While Ramaphosa and Mbalula were disgruntled with the DA, they expressed the ANC’s commitment to the GNU and negotiations over the coalition’s future.

However, the tone of their statements sounded deeply dissatisfied with the DA amid calls from the ANC-led alliance partners for the party to let the DA go.

Mbalula said with its opposition to the 2025 national budget, the DA had defined itself outside of the unity government.

He echoed Ramaphosa, who accused the DA of having put itself in the mess it was in and it was up to the party to get itself out of that situation.

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