‘Power nightmare’ awaits ‘lost’ ANC – experts

The embattled African National Congress (ANC), which has lost much in a single local government election and was even ousted from its strongholds, is a party that has lost its destiny and is facing a “power nightmare” in 2024, analysts say.

The ANC losses saw the DA in control of the three most affluent cities: Johannesburg, SA’s economic hub, Tshwane, the capital and seat of government, and Cape Town, the country’s legislative seat. It gained its first municipality in KwaZulu-Natal – Umngeni – and won a second in the Eastern Cape, Beyers Naude, on Tuesday in addition to Kouga.

But the series of defeats at the polls and this week’s council leadership elections was an indication the ruling party was no longer unassailable, said political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga.

“The ANC is losing power. The explanation is simple: the ANC has ruined it for itself. Just look across the municipalities and you will have the answers.

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“Some thought South Africans are not responsive, South Africans are not seeing what is happening, but now look at the voices; look at the message of the voters. They are tired of the ANC,” Mathekga said.

Sanusha Naidu, another expert, said the results showed the ANC was no longer in charge of its future. “It indicates that the ANC is really no longer in control of its own destiny – it’s no longer part of the dynamic of being a party that some feel nostalgic about – it lost those credentials.

“However, it will still follow the path of being the party that fought the anti-apartheid struggle, while there is a much more discerning and astute electorate who says ‘yes, we recognise you but we don’t necessarily believe that you are governing on the principles, values and morality that you claim you have’,” Naidu said.

It was unwise of the ANC to bank on other parties failing to put their coalitions together, hoping to get into councils through the back door.

All the ANC had to do now was to go back to the drawing board. Mathekga said there was a realisation among the voters that it was “do-able to move away from the ANC”.

“The local government had been the first point of entry in dislodging the ANC’s power. The local government system had performed very poorly because of the ANC.”

The trends of the local election outcomes usually were a barometer of future national polls. So, the loss experienced by the ANC in the recent local elections would most likely be replicated in the 2024 national polls.

“It’s about the shakedown of the ANC in the institutions of power and society, which the ANC had occupied significantly.

“The past 48 hours sealed the ANC’s fate when it lost seven municipalities: five on Monday, including two significant metros – the City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni – and poised to lose poised to part ways with Tshwane.

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“As if this was not enough, Graaff Reinet-based Beyers Naude in the Eastern Cape slipped out of its grip when the DA took over in a coalition with Compatriots of South Africa (CSA) and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) on Wednesday. The DA now has more municipalities under its wing than in 2016.”

It received an outright win over the ANC at Umngeni local municipality where the isiZulu-fluent DA member Chris Pappas was elected mayor.

The DA obtained 13 seats against the ANC’s 10 and two for the EFF. This was the first municipality to be governed by the DA in KZN. The area even saw growth in EFF support moving from 1.37% in 2016 to 6.93%.

At Metsimaholo, Free State, the EFF managed to secure the mayoral post under its own banner as smaller parties and civic movements competed to steal power from the governing party.

The EFF’s “fighter” Selloane Motjeane was elected at the council’s inaugural meeting on Monday, trouncing the ANC candidate, Lucas Fisher.