Coalition instability: ‘Phalatse remains vulnerable and can be ousted yet again’ – analyst

The drama surrounding the coalition governments in some of Gauteng’s metros doesn’t seem to be coming to an end.

Tania Campbell was this week removed as mayor of Ekurhuleni through a motion of no confidence.

ALSO READ: Tania Campbell removed as mayor of Ekurhuleni

In this same week, her colleague from the Democratic Alliance (DA), Mpho Phalatse, again became executive mayor for the City of Joburg for the second time in the space of weeks.

Phalatse was also ousted in similar fashion at the end of September.

However, she vowed to fight her ousting to the bitter end and on Tuesday this week, the Gauteng High Court in Johannesburg declared her ousting invalid, unlawful and unconstitutional.

ALSO READ: DA wins court case over Mpho Phalatse’s removal as Joburg mayor

Some believe Phalatse’s victory will be short-lived as she does not have the numbers on her side amid plans to have another motion of no confidence against her.

With all the drama brought by unstable coalition agreements, concerns have been raised, particularly around the impact this is having on the delivery of much-needed services to communities.

Speaking to The Citizen on Friday, political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage said what is currently being witnessed in the metros where coalition agreements are failing is a symptom of a deeper underlying problems defining local government.

“We are talking about structures that are falling apart, financial challenges, lack of service delivery and as a result of that, the ANC is losing support, we end up in coalition governments and we still have a culture of ‘if you win, you dominate’ and the culture is largely absent.

“At the moment, I understand there are a lot of negotiations taking place behind the scenes and I think the problems in Gauteng have a lot to do with the ANC’s mismanagement and poor governance in the past two or even more decades and that is extremely problematic,” said Duvenhage.

New legislation needed?

He said for a new government or coalition, which naturally has its limitations, it would take five to 10 years to turn the situation around, stressing that coalition politics are missing a piece of legislation that the Electoral Commission (IEC) can use in the formation of coalitions.

“I believe there should be rules or a binding contract that needs to be signed before any group can take control of a local structure, binding the different parties for a period of five years.

“This can assist us a lot in dealing with instability but at the moment we already have a failing municipal system in the metros but also in the local municipalities and coalition government on top of it is making things more difficult and at the end of the day, service delivery becomes even poorer,” Duvenhage added.

Phalatse vulnerable

Another political analyst Prof. Dirk Kotzé echoed sentiments suggesting that Phalatse’s court victory will be short-lived as she doesn’t have the numbers.

Kotzé says it’s only a matter of time before the ANC grouping determines the tableing of another motion of no confidence.

ALSO READ: Mpho Phalatse’s days as mayor numbered

“The position of Speaker hasn’t changed because of this court judgement and the position of the nine DA chairpersons of committee haven’t changed either, so it is only the mayor and in that sense it leaves her (Phalatse) vulnerable and exposed.

“Until there is a change of position of one of the key ANC allies like the Patriotic Alliance (PA) back to the DA, the current situation will remain unchanged… she (Phalatse) won the fight but not the war,” he said.

Ekurhuleni

With respect to Ekurhuleni, Kotzé said the DA never had the majority there and have been dependent on the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

“The future of the DA’s group or alliance depends on what the EFF is going to do in future because at the moment they seem to be supporting the anti-DA position or maybe the ANC position. But, as we have seen in the past, the EFF can move around and it’s certainly not in an alliance with the ANC.

“Ekurhuleni is possibly the metro which is the most uncertain of all three because there is no clear pattern of a coalition that can be established there with a majority support,” Kotzé said.

Another political analyst Piet Croucamp agrees Phalatse’s victory is temporary, saying she will be removed again because the PA has joined the ANC while Helen Zille refused to strengthen the coalition by appointing the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) member as the Speaker.

“These coalitions will continue to be unstable and while this is normal politics, one hopes all of these experiences will give us the knowledge and the know-how to manage coalitions better in time for the 2024 general election,” Croucamp added.