ANC and DA likely to shed some votes to Mashaba – analyst

The ghosts of nondelivery past may return to haunt the ANC in this year’s Halloween elections and if it loses substantial support, the politics of coalitions could be trigged, with small parties controlling the balance of power.

Voter apathy and indecision may swing votes to smaller parties.

This forecast comes as online sentiment and trend statistics point to a watershed election with wake-up calls for two of the three major players in the metro race, the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA) as Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA keeps making inroads.

Digital analyst Carmen Murray said: “It’s a topsy-turvy mess of opinion and sentiment online,” after tracking the profiles on parties as the 1 November poll looms.

“The DA has started losing ground in Cape Town,” Murray warned, saying ActionSA is garnering positive sentiment in the city, along with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). On the fringe is Patricia de Lille’s Good Party, which sports former Bok coach Peter de Villiers as its mayoral candidate.

“Former DA mayor Dan Plato is still popular, but current candidate Geordin Hill-Lewis and his battle bus is making inroads,” Murray said, concluding that Cape Town may remain blue, for now.

Political analyst Russel Crystal said: “It is by no means surprising that Plato remains more popular simply because of the influence of identity politics among the coloured electorate in the Western Cape.”

In Gauteng, said Murray, the DA stands a chance of taking Ekurhuleni in a coalition government.

This could likely be with ActionSA.

“The Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus will probably each gain marginally, with the EFF making the greatest gains.”

Murray also expects a lot of protest voting for fringe parties.

“And while it’s not a dead cert, as things stand a coalition looks like the metro’s end point.”

Crystal said the DA’s fortunes in Ekurhuleni may well be affected by the absence of former regional election campaign manager Mike Waters.

“He has always been a master of mobilising registered DA voters to the polls.”

City of Joburg is a prize in the balance and Murray said while the DA had made positive rating gains in the area, the battle between the EFF and ANC may see urban support bases tested.

But based on current social listening, ActionSA will also give everyone a run for their money.

“The ANC and the DA may likely shed some votes to Mashaba,” Murray said, noting that Joburg can be anyone’s city. eThekwini is where the real action will take place, said Murray.

“The unrest in the area has dealt a real blow to the ruling party’s credibility. ”

– news@citizen.co.za