Nasrec, 3 years later: Ramaphosa’s time has come

Three years after the ANC held its most anticipated elective conference at Nasrec that precipitated a 50-50 split leadership, the organisation of Albert Luthuli, Oliver Tambo and Nelson Mandela is struggling to find that which can unite it.

The ANC’s 54th conference held at Nasrec Expo Centre south of Johannesburg three years ago this month, attracted interest from beyond the confines of the party. The anticipated change of guard from Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa wasn’t only an ANC issue, it was a national and global wish.

The corruption that occurred during the Zuma administration pushed the country to the brink of a political precipice. Unprecedented public discontent birthed the #ZumaMustFall protest marches, organised by civil society and opposition parties, that became a nationwide campaign. There were marches in the major cities of Tshwane, Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town as ideological enemies put aside their differences to fight a common enemy, the elephant in the room, Zuma.

Seeing the red-beret Economic Freedom Fighters marching shoulder to shoulder with the Freedom Front Plus, Save South Africa Campaign, the Democratic Alliance, Congress of the People and the United Democratic Movement, among others, was a previously unheard of expression of solidarity. It seemed the nation was on the brink of invading the Union Buildings and demanding that Zuma resign – an act that could have sparked a civil war.

The ANC and its allies watched the strategic initiative slipping from their grip into the hands of the new players. The governing party, which claimed to be a leader of society, was relegated to spectator status in its own game of street protest politics. Ramaphosa conceded there had been “nine wasted years” as he counted the cost of economic damage, reconciliation and SA’s reputation after Zuma’s reign.

When the ANC recalled him in February 2018 – two months after the Nasrec conference – history repeated itself as Zuma was forced to swallow the bitter pill he, the Congress of SA Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party had meted out to Thabo Mbeki in removing him as president six months prior to the end of his term.

By this time in 2017, the governing party had made preparations for a contest steeped in Ramaphosa’s favour from the start. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was not a strong opponent and was, in reality, a stop-gap candidate to infuse a “Zuma factor” into the contest. She was thrust into a factional hole she didn’t dig by a faction that was desperate for a champion for their cause. But the Zuma camp had lost the fight at Nasrec before it began.

Ramaphosa’s foot soldiers managed to infiltrate, divide and conquer KwaZulu-Natal, a province that would have elected Dlamini-Zuma, winning many over onto his side. He did the unthinkable in going to campaign in the heartland of Jacob Zuma’s stronghold.

After the pre-Nasrec ANC Free State and KZN provincial conference outcomes were nullified by the Free State High Court in Bloemfontein and the KZN High Court in Pietermaritzburg, Ramaphosa appeared to be riding the crest of a wave of victory. The KZN provincial executive committee and some from North West were barred from the national conference due to electoral irregularities.

Ramaphosa’s victory was sealed after Zuma-supporting delegates from Mpumalanga decided to drop Dlamini-Zuma at the 11th hour in favour of Ramaphosa, thanks to current Deputy President David Mabuza’s plan to change sides after being promised the deputy president post should Ramaphosa win.

The “premier league”, a non-constitutional lobby group formed by the then premiers of Mpumalanga (Mabuza), Free State (Ace Magashule), North West (Supra Mahumapelo), KZN (Sihle Zikalala as ANC chair) and the Paul Mashatile faction in Gauteng, pursued another line at Nasrec. Their plan was aborted as delegates did not buy into their idea, which clearly undermined democracy and their power to elect leaders of their choice.

But political analyst professor Andre Duvenhage believed the premier league isn’t dead and it beat a tactical retreat to return later, possibly with Mabuza as its leader. However, some in the ANC doubt other “premiers” would still trust a man they regarded as “sellout”. After Nasrec, Ramaphosa succeeded in stealing Zikalala for his side, but isolated Magashule, who is now facing the courts.

Nasrec produced an almost 50- 50 split outcome, which forced the ANC into a compromise national executive committee. Ramaphosa had no option but to preach unity, which three years on remains elusive. Political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu said the ANC was more divided now than prior to or at the Nasrec conference. “I don’t think Ramaphosa has managed to unite the ANC. He has not been able to assert himself. He has good intentions, but he is surrounded by people who don’t want to see him succeed as a leader.”

Although Zuma was absent from active politics, his influence remained as long as his allies, ANC secretary-general Magashule, deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte and former North West premier Mahumapelo were involved. He said the Zuma camp dominated parliamentary portfolio committees, a ploy by Magashule’s Luthuli House grouping to retain some influence and power at state level.

“Ramaphosa is too much into appeasing people who are… interested in enriching themselves. The ANC is so rotten it cannot be fixed, it needs to be removed from power. There is need for serious introspection about who should lead this country and how.”

The Nasrec compromise is also hampering forward movement on economic growth as Ramaphosa is forced to consult on every state decision or risk a backlash or revolt. Even if he wished to, he can’t reduce the public service or do away with money-guzzling state entities without offending the Left or consulting the other faction. The need to strike a balance between state and party interests has rendered his government a fake.

Towards the ANC’s national general council and the 2022 party conference two centres of power would likely emerge: one run by Magashule at Luthuli House pulling in one direction, and Ramaphosa’s state power at the Union Buildings going the other way.

With corruption investigations by the National Prosecuting Authority and the Hawks having nabbed many suspects the Commission of Inquiry into State Capture identified, this should embolden Ramaphosa to assert his authority even if it means jailing his comrades. This is the time for him to reclaim his power and become the decisive leader SA wants him to be.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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