Mbeki’s beef with Cyril could cost the ANC in long run

The drama between former president Thabo Mbeki and the party he once led could result in major setbacks for the governing party in the 2024 national elections if it continues – never mind the decline the party has already suffered, according to analysts.

After Mbeki’s heavy criticism of the party over how it handled the Phala Phala saga on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s game farm, the ANC’s top seven met him on Tuesday in the wake of the 17-page letter he sent to deputy president Paul Mashatile.

Mbeki had specifically noted the ruling party had used its power in parliament to shield Ramaphosa from accountability.

ALSO READ: Mbeki’s meeting with ANC leaders ‘an opportunity to get guidance’

While the ANC did not elaborate on the details and outcome of the meeting, ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri said the meeting reflected on the letter and the discussion was framed around organisational renewal and unity of the ANC.

“The meeting was unanimous in its appreciation of the urgency to renew the ANC. To this end, former president Mbeki underscored his strong support for the renewal and unity of the ANC,” she said.

Mbeki vs Ramaphosa drama growing

Political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the drama between the ANC and Mbeki was growing and if it was not managed, it could cost the ANC votes.

“There were people who were angered by Mbeki’s viewpoint but because of the complexities, they were well aware of the implications this might have in the upcoming general election,” he said.

Breakfast said no-one was sure what Mbeki was up to.

“During the time of former president Jacob Zuma, he said he was not going to comment on domestic issues, but was going to focus on international relations. The question is, what made him have a change of heart of late?

“Is it because he does not have respect for the incumbents and he only respected Zuma? So the question is whether is he a relevant person to criticise the current government. Maybe – or maybe not.”

ALSO READ: Mbeki is ‘right about ANC, but the political implications are serious’

Breakfast said the issues Mbeki raised in the letter may have been valid, but the rationale or motivation behind them should be in question.

“Why do you choose the deputy president of the ANC, as opposed to the secretary-general?” Breakfast asked.

“Because the procedure is to address that letter to the secretary-general, but he chose the deputy president.”

ANC succession plan

Political analyst André Duvenhage said it was a well-known fact there was a history with Mbeki being dissatisfied with the leadership style and the leadership of Ramaphosa.

Duvenhage said the meeting might have consisted of discussions pertaining to matters of the interest of the ANC: Ramaphosa’s position was discussed, the context of Phala Phala and the implications it may have for the 2024 elections, as well as its possible influence in the battle against corruption.

“It is clear Ramaphosa is also implicated in this regard. So there’s a conflict of interest,” Duvenhage said.

RELATED: Many compliance questions remain in Phala Phala dollar saga

“I believe this was a core matter, and how this will impact on the ruling party – specifically how the ANC will perform in the 2024 elections.”

Duvenhage said the ANC could be internally busy with a succession plan.

“I am expecting Ramaphosa to take the process towards the 2024 election. Shortly after that, he may leave the political scene.

“They may be planning it in this regard, but this is a calculated guess,” he said.

ALSO READ: ‘No dirty dollars’ – Ramaphosa calls out DA for ‘jumping to conclusions’ about Phala Phala matter

“This is also reflected in the composition of Mashatile’s leadership as the deputy president. But I also think Mbeki has concerns about politics and I won’t put him outside the framework of political aspirations,” Duvenhage said.