Mbalula’s 30% for 2024 ‘a deliberate scare tactic to rally ANC leaders to unite’

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s prediction that the ANC may get as little as 30% in next year’s national election may be a deliberate scare tactic to wake the party from its lethargy.

However, according to political analyst Sandile Swana, the ongoing load shedding will cost the ANC dearly in all the big metros. Especially those adversely affected by the electricity switch-off blamed the ANC as the source of the problem.

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“In Joburg, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, Durban, Cape Town, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay and the bigger towns where the electricity impacts directly on income earned, the ANC is going to pay a price.

“The biggest price to pay will be in Gauteng,” Swana said.

‘Deliberate exaggeration’

Political analyst Daniel Silke said when Mbalula told a Sunday newspaper he was surprised by polls showing the ruling party at 49% as he expected it at 30%, he might have deliberately exaggerated the situation to rally the ANC leaders to unite and work harder in their campaign towards the 2024 national elections.

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“Mbalula is deliberately trying to talk down the ANC support level because this will firstly be a motivating factor for the party to try and rally behind each other to so as to reduce internal conflicts and draw the factions together to consolidate power.

“By talking down the ANC support, he gives a sense of urgency for the party to come together and pull out all stops in terms of campaigning, putting aside party differences and creating efficiency when it comes to election campaigns,” Silke said.

The dropping ANC electoral performance was a shock to the party, but Mbalula’s 30% for 2024 was an exaggeration, Silke said. If indeed the ANC performance dropped dramatically as Mbalula suggested “the gloves are off in terms of who will govern SA”.

“At 30% for the ANC it really means an opposition coalition can cobble together a power bloc to rule without the ANC.

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“But I don’t think, given the by-election results at the moment, that is feasible. He is over-emphasising the point that the ANC needs to get its house in order from a campaign and battle point of view,” Silke said.

ANC results

Swana expected the ANC to receive between 40% and 45% of the vote.

“The 30% might be a bit too low. My estimate, based on local government elections, is that the ANC is now sitting between 40% and 45%.

“The might settle around 40% and above, but not 30%,” Swana said.

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If the ANC lost huge percentages in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, its national average will drop dramatically and it would lose power nationally.

“When you lose Gauteng, you lose an area that has the most votes. Similarly, if you lose KZN you actually lose a huge percentage of the national population,” he said.

Silke estimated the ruling party would receive between 45% and 50% of the total votes in 2024, which put the party in danger of having to seek coalition partners. If it achieved between 45% and 48%, it could form a coalition with a relatively small opposition party or a series of small parties and exclude the EFF in order to push them over the 50% mark.

“I think the party will be looking at that kind of result: where it needs a small and relatively harmless opposition party to get into bed with,” Silke said.

“Also, the ruling party could still eke out a victory at the polls, using the strategies employed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who recently won an election runoff using all sorts of nationalistic means at his disposal.

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“The ANC, of course, has many means of patronage. It can offer all sorts of incentives: it can introduce fear into the election campaign, it can introduce racial rhetoric into the election campaign,” Silke said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za