Paul Mashatile and Julius Malema at the ANC special National Executive Committee session on 20 August 2011 in Pretoria. Picture: Gallo Images
Is South Africa heading for a situation where the country will be co-governed by Paul Mashatile and Julius Malema.
Mashatile is the current deputy president of the African National Congress (ANC) and is likely to replace David Mabuza as second in command of the country when President Cyril Ramaphosa’s long-awaited cabinet reshuffle finally happens.
Malema, on the other hand, has been at the helm of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) for nearly 10 years.
Political analyst Prince Mashele sparked a debate among South Africans this week, when he suggested a scenario in which these two overcome party differences and form an alliance to govern the country.
In an interview with SABC, Mashele said South Africans must brace themselves for a moment where Malema will become deputy president of the country with the likely next deputy president replacing Ramaphosa as president.
“There is a personal thing between Julius and Ramaphosa and they (the EFF) have a good relationship with Paul Mashatile and the leadership of the ANC in Gauteng.
“They have a deal with the leadership of ANC Gauteng by bringing back the ANC into the metros, and that deal involves that if the ANC get less than 50% next year and the EFF get 10%, Paul Mashatile as president and Julius Malema as deputy president, will co-govern South Africa,” Mashele was quoted saying.
At least three political analysts who spoke to The Citizen believe this scenario cannot be ruled out.
Reacting to this, political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage said Ramaphosa cannot show a lot of success at the moment in terms of the main governance criteria, especially the battle against corruption, saying there are questions about the president’s ability which creates an environment where contenders emerge.
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Duvenhage says at some point there were also rumours that Mashatile may reposition against Ramaphosa during the ANC’s national elective conference last year and align himself with Dr. Zweli Mkhize.
“I believe he (Mashatile) read the situation and saw that it’s better to go for Ramaphosa and to try to achieve the position of deputy president of the country.
“At the moment this whole argument is dependent on what happens to Ramaphosa. I think he performed relatively well during the elective conference, making his position a bit better but there is still the whole Phala Phala thing, and just this week the Constitutional Court denied his right to appeal the prima facie case presented by the Commission of Inquiry before Parliament,” said Duvenhage.
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Duvenhage wonders if the same rules apply which are applicable to Ace Magashule and many others, saying there is a lot of uncertainty around Ramaphosa.
Duvenhage says questions about whether the ANC will need the support of the EFF to come out on top of next year’s much anticipated general election cannot be avoided.
“Already we have heard ANC chairperson in Gauteng Panyaza Lesufi making inroads in terms of creating alliances with the EFF, and we have also seen the impact of this in terms of the metros in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and also now Tshwane.
He stressed that it is not entirely implausible that Mashatile could eventually emerge as the leader of the ANC, and that parts of the ANC may align with the EFF.
According to Duvenhage, Mashatile is likely to support Ramaphosa to the extent that it is within his interest and in terms of the balance of forces within the ANC.
“I have no doubt in my mind that if the balance of forces in the ANC will be to the advantage of Mashatile, he will take advantage of it. And I think he has the position of president in mind, and I’m still of the opinion that Ramaphosa is vulnerable and not a strong leader.
“The other side of Ramaphosa is that he is taking cautious steps and as a result of that, he is surviving. I think at the moment the balance of forces is still in his favour, but I’m not sure what is the impact of Phala Phala going to be, including how the Andre de Ruyter episode will play out within the structures of the ANC, and who will be implicated,” Duvenhage said.
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Another analyst, Sanusha Naidu, shared similar sentiments.
She said while several permutations are possible, there are also murmurings in the ANC about people not being happy about having Mashatile as deputy president.
Commenting further on the likelihood of a Mashatile and Malema presidency, Naidu said it’s also important to ask what dynamics would enable such a permutation.
“One of the questions that one needs to ask is whether Ramaphosa is going. Does he want to stay on after 2024? And let’s say he decides to stay, what does it mean for the permutation?
“Depending by what margin the ANC wins in next year’s general election, if there’s a need for a coalition agreement to be entered into, does this give Mashatile more impetus? Does it enable him more, and who will the chief negotiators be for the coalition talks?” asked Naidu.
Naidu further observed: “When one looks at what’s been happening in some of the metros – Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni – one wonders if this gives the EFF leverage to say they will work with the ANC but without Ramaphosa.
“On the other hand, if Ramaphosa decides to go, does Mashatile have the ability and will the ANC coalesce in electing Malema as deputy president.”
“The Constitutional Court dismissed his application this week and the challenge for Ramaphosa is what if something is done by the ANC’s integrity commission, not forgetting institutions such as the Hawks and the South African Revenue Services (Sars), among others. Everything is just piling up.
“Is Cyril still more popular than the party or has he now become a liability for the ANC?” Naidu asked.
Also Read: ConCourt ruling on Phala Phala report ‘not a blow’ for Ramaphosa – Presidency
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