Magashule’s arrest could usher in Polokwane 2.0 for the ANC

Now that a warrant of arrest has finally been issued for ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, the ANC could be heading for a repeat of the Polokwane scenario.

This means an acceleration of a long-simmering plot by Cyril Ramaphosa’s enemies to oust him in the same fashion they ousted Thabo Mbeki.

When then deputy president Jacob Zuma was arrested on corruption charges emanating from the multi-billion rand arms deal, his supporters both inside and outside of government blamed Thabo Mbeki for allegedly using state apparatus to fight his ANC party battles.

Mbeki was finally ousted in a plot hatched by Zuma’s senior supporters such as then ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, former Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, SACP general secretary, Blade Nzimande and ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema.

Wide ranging implications for the ANC

Political analyst, Prof Dirk Kotze, said the warrant for Magashule’s arrest would have wide and devastating implications for the ANC, as Magashule’s office was the most important in the party. If he was arrested, he should step aside in terms of the ANC’s own decision that all criminal suspects must do so.

But Kotze said he did not think that Magashule would follow that rule.

“I don’t expect that to happen, that decision was not properly implemented from the start. I don’t see Ace stepping aside,” Kotze said.

Ironically, Magashule was the one who announced the ANC national executive decision that all those facing allegations of corruption must step aside. However, Luthuli House, which Magashule headed, has been accused of allowing VBS bank looting suspects in Limpopo to return to work.

Kotze said Magashule’s arrest, if it happened, would be “possibly the most important milestone” in all actions taken against corruption in the country.

“Magashule was seen as untouchable,” Kotze said.

The Hawks’ spokesperson in the Free State Warrant Officer Lynda Steyn confirmed that the warrant for Magashule’s arrest was related to the Free State asbestos corruption. Magashule was mentioned at the Zondo Commission into State Capture as one of the prime suspects in the graft, for which several others have already appeared in court.

“This will create uncertainty within the ANC. The ANC has to hold the national general council early next year. That has to be managed by the secretary-general, so he may not be around to organise that. If he is arrested he will have to vacate his seat. But all that is not clear at this stage. But what is clear is that this development will cause a big wave within the ANC,” Kotze said.

“Don’t use law enforcement agencies to fight personal battles” –  MKMVA

That the arrest would spark anger among the ANC’s Zuma faction is without doubt. Already the Zuma-aligned Radical Economic Transformation elements within the ANC, under the leadership of Umkhonto Wesizwe Military Veterans Association (MKMVA) see the warrant as part of Ramaphosa’s use of law enforcement agencies as a tool to fight his factional battles.

According to MKMVA spokesperson, Carl Niehaus, the issuing of the warrant was “an extremely serious development for both the ANC and the whole country.

“As MKMVA we warned many times against the selective use of corruption charges and the law enforcement agencies as tools for factional targeting and political infighting causes disunity in the African National Congress (ANC) and overall in our country. It is also fundamentally disrespectful of our Constitution and the rule of law in general,” Niehaus said.

He announced an MKMVA social media campaign dubbed #HandsOffAceMagashule! #StopTheWedgeDriversInOurANC.

ANC spokesperson, Pule Mabe, confirmed that Magashule had advised the ANC about the warrant and he would be in consultation with his legal team to best respond to the latest developments, and to guide any response on the matter.

“The Secretary General previously spoke about his imminent arrest and had requested his legal team to establish the validity of such an arrest with the relevant authorities. The Secretary General stated on more than one occasion, including through his legal team, that he would cooperate with any process undertaken by law enforcement agencies,” Mabe said.

No smoke without fire

Another political analyst, Dr Somadoda Fikeni, said the Hawks wouldn’t go to Magashule if they had no solid evidence against him.

“Initially there could have been a ruction within the ANC if there was no proof, but the Hawk considered the fact that you can’t go for a person of Magashule’s calibre if you have no evidence. The fact that they issued a warrant indicates they have solid evidence,” Fikeni.

The analyst also highlighted that any argument that President Ramaphosa was using state law enforcement agencies to fight his ANC factional battles could be nullified by the fact that those to be charged for Covid-19 corruption were mainly his supporters.

-ericn@citizen.co.za

For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.