Magashule’s expulsion a ‘positive moment’ for ANC, but ‘not without implications’

Ace Magashule messed with the ANC and found out the hard way that the party’s disciplinary process is merciless.

Political experts were not surprised that Magashule was bulleted by the party yesterday. It’s the end of the former Free State premier’s political career, at least with the ruling party.

Political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast said: “I saw it coming. I’m not taken aback by the turn of events.”

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It was interesting that last Friday there was an announcement of the proclamation of the president to support the investigation of the Special Investigating Unit, he said, and as a precursor, the ANC demanded an explanation from its former secretary-general.

“It just meant there is no political future for [Magashule] in the ANC and the only way out now is for him to start a new political life outside the ANC,” he said.

RET faction ‘dealt with’

Breakfast said President Cyril Ramaphosa had weakened Magashule’s power in his second term, leaving him no room in which to manoeuvre.

“The possibility is for him to join forces with a house outside the ANC, or maybe start his own political party,” he said.

“But the other thing that has been a blow to him – though this has not been widely reported – is the fallout between him and former president Jacob Zuma,” he said.

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Breakfast said this signalled the radical economic transformation (RET) grouping had been “dealt with”.

“Ramaphosa has made a lot of blunders in terms of the management of power outages, our foreign policy, but he has managed to consolidate his political power.

“The ANC is also trying to convey a message that it is the centre and no-one is above it,” he said.

“But I still do not think it will improve the electoral performance of the ANC.”

Positive moment for ANC

Even though Magashule was suspended from the ANC in 2021 following corruption charges, North-West University political analyst Professor André Duvenhage said this was a watershed moment for the ANC because it acted against an influential person within the party.

“We know the ANC is one criminal syndicate and for the syndicate to act against one of the mafia leaders, it is like Shaka Zulu acting against Mzilikazi Khumalo,” he said.

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Duvenhage said the ANC had drawn a line and made a decision to restore the integrity of an institution which was already about 100% down the drain. This was a positive moment but was not without implications.

“And that is the other side of the coin. The implications are in a 50/50 election, the ANC will struggle to get 50. The Ace Magashule populist factor may be the difference between a 50% and a below 50%,” he said.

“I think there’s going to be an impact and, hopefully, it is not of such a nature which will pull the ANC down. I may support them and I think it is a good deed they tried to do, but there is a huge penalty to it.”

Duvenhage added Ramaphosa’s politics had excellent timing.

“And I think with the Zuma thing going to a crisis, he may [implement] divide and rule [by] giving Zuma a pardon to mobilise the ANC of KwaZulu-Natal behind him and show his high morality with the actions against Magashule.

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“Then you split the RET finally and that will be a brilliant move.”

Magashule was expelled from the ANC yesterday after he failed to respond to the national disciplinary committee (NDC), having been given seven days to state why he should not be kicked out.

The former secretary-general had been found guilty of bringing the party into disrepute following his unsanctioned attempt to suspend Ramaphosa.

ANC national spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri in a statement said: “The NDC confirmed the expulsion of comrade Ace Magashule from the ANC as a final sanction.”