Plenty of reasons why Mabuza isn’t the right man to replace Cyril, say experts

Deputy David Mabuza automatically takes over in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s absence, but he is not best choice as the next head of state because he “lacks statesmanship” and is a “rough and tumble” streetwise politician, an expert says.

Another said Mabuza was not suitable for the position and his visits to Russia on the basis of illhealth were suspicious.

But nobody would miss Ramaphosa during his sick leave absence because he was not prominent in public.

Political analyst Prof Barry Hanyane believed there were gaps in Mabuza’s legacy and his survivalist leadership portrayed him as untrustworthy.

“He appears to be someone who doesn’t understand what statesmanship is about,” Hanyane said.

Political scientist from NorthWest University André Duvenhage said Ramaphosa’s absence due to contracting Covid would not have serious leadership implications for the country as it would be for a short time and usually it was calm in politics at this time of the year.

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“We need also to consider the fact that there are a lot of structures in place around the presidency and in a way the office can continue,” Duvenhage said.

However, the analyst said Mabuza’s regular visits to Russia were suspicious and that they were not only about his illness, but about some secret negotiations, possibly around the Russian nuclear deal that emerged during the Jacob Zuma era.

Hanyane based his views on Mabuza’s historical conduct as premier of Mpumalanga “where his politics were driven by perhaps clandestine relations” with his supporters.

Hanyane cited widespread allegations that Mabuza led by fear and intimidation towards his opponents and allegedly used unfavourable tactics to consolidate and advance his career.

“Much of the evidence that one wants to speak to on all of these allegations is yet to be … tested before a court of law,” Hanyane added.

“What is known in the public domain is that here is a shrewd politician who goes the extra mile to achieve his political ambitions.

“But at national level, the stage is bigger. It might not be able to accommodate such tactics,” he said.

Mabuza needed to adopt statesman-like attributes that would bring him the national confidence and support needed to run the highest office in the land.

“I will put my head on the block to say he does not appeal as a politician who is geared to take over that responsibility,” Hanyane said.

There were gaps in Mabuza’s legacy as Mpumalanga leader in terms of understanding where he was and where he came from.

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“Then again, it puts a very dark cloud in terms of assessing his ability to rise to the occasion to lead the nation.”

Towards Nasrec, Mabuza was in the Zuma camp but changed his mind at the 11th hour to back Ramaphosa.

He influenced Mpumalanga, then the second-most powerful province after KwaZulu-Natal, to vote for Ramaphosa and thereby swing the results in his favour against his challenger, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

With the Ramaphosa mission accomplished, Mabuza was catapulted to the number two position in the governing party and the country, leaving a power vacuum, political instability and continuous power struggles in the Mpumalanga ANC leadership.

According to Hanyane, Mabuza’s conduct as initiator of the so-called premier league exposed his ambition to become the next deputy president and the future president.

This brought with it a sense of not knowing exactly what his next move would be.

He seemed well suited to his nickname, Cat, having nine lives in politics.

– ericn@citizen.co.za