Is the DA’s by-election thrashing a dress rehearsal for 2021 vote?

With the DA having taken a thrashing in this week’s by-elections across 55 municipalities in the country’s nine provinces, political analysts on Thursday said the switching of allegiances by the party’s traditional supporters stemmed from the political direction adopted by the its new leadership.

They warned that the DA’s dismal performance could be considered a dress rehearsal of what could be expected in next year’s local government polls, if the party failed to go back to the drawing board to address weaknesses.

Results released by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) on 95 wards contested, painted the picture of a party struggling to appeal to voters in almost all provinces – including its Western Cape stronghold.

According to the IEC national overview, the:

• ANCongress retained 64, lost two and won six new wards.
• DA retained 14, lost nine and won two new wards.
• Inkatha Freedom Party retained four and won one new ward.Patriotic Alliance won one new ward.
• Good Party won one new ward.
• Al Jama-Ah won one new ward.
• Freedom Front Plus won one new ward.
• National Freedom Party lost one ward.United Front of Civics Party lost one ward.

Wits School of Governance visiting professor, Susan Booysen, said: “This is dire for the DA and it means going back to the drawing board. Party supporters boycott an election out of anger over things that have gone wrong, which may range from service delivery to unhappiness leadership developments.

“Voters have an axe to grind with the DA, which has translated into manna from heaven for the ANC – a sign of things to come for the party in next year’s local government elections.”

Political analyst, Dr Ralph Mathekga, described the DA’s performance in the by-elections as “quite tragic”.

“The party needs to reflect very deeply on this election outcome. It has gone through serious troubles in the past few years in terms of leadership instability, showing that lack of coherence at national leadership level, is trickling down to ward level.

“Losses in the Western Cape – a traditional DA stronghold – also reflect an ideological war, not a service delivery one.

“In these by-elections, the DA was supposed to be capitalising on the weaknesses of the ANC, especially on matters that have to do with corruption. You need to ask yourself whether there would be any other favourable circumstances for the DA to help it mobilise for more support for next year’s elections,” said Mathekga.

Nelson Mandela University lecturer in political and conflict studies, Ongama Mtimka, said: “Part of the DA loss could be attributed to overreacting to respond to one constituency – ending up upsetting others.

“The DA has now politically neutralised itself in terms of constituencies that were in the past showing signs of growth. They have precipitated their own reputational crisis by overreacting to a tiny constituency of their support base, which they have interpreted to be the core constituency.

“They are now facing real challenges everyone has been warning them about.

“Clearly, non-racialism only makes sense to the DA’s inner core, but what they are doing is driving a racial message, as far as constituencies are interpreting.

“Times of ignoring by-elections are gone, because they convey some of the what is in the minds of the electorate – an emerging trend the DA has to worry about towards next year’s elections.”

brians@citizen.co.za

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