Ipsos poll shows EFF could overtake DA as official opposition

The latest Ipsos poll suggests that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could outperform the Democratic Alliance (DA), potentially positioning itself as the official opposition.

This comes amid criticism of the DA for its weekend announcement claiming to have surpassed the ANC in new voter registrations and re-registrations.

“In an important milestone, the DA proudly announces that, for the first time, we have outperformed the ANC in new voter registrations and re-registrations,” said the party.

“The most recent registration data highlights the DA’s success in securing the largest share of new and re-registrations.”

READ MORE: DA criticised for ‘dishonest campaigning’

However, the latest representative Ipsos poll conducted in South Africa from 23 October to 1 December, 2023, and published on Tuesday, suggests otherwise.

“In the data depicted, the EFF performs marginally better than the DA, potentially positioning itself as the official opposition,” reads the data.

However, in all voter turnout scenarios, the ANC support dips to below 50%, with Ipsos further noting fieldwork for the poll was conducted before the establishment of the uMkhonto weSizwe party.

Experts anticipate the ANC to lose some votes to the MK party.

READ MORE: ANC will struggle in KZN – experts

The Inkatha Freedom Party’s (IFP) support on a national level could be around 5% − mainly coming from KwaZulu-Natal where the party is a strong contender, while Action SA’s support is primarily in Gauteng.

Ipsos, however, warns that the results should not be taken at face value as the figures include 10.1% of the registered electorate who have not aligned themselves with a particular political party, indicated as “will not vote”, “refuse to answer”, or “don’t know”.

“These responses are all valid answers to the question asked, and delving deeper into this data can provide valuable insights to be able to analyse the ‘undecided vote’.

“It’s crucial to acknowledge that individuals who abstain from expressing a preference might not align with the majority of the electorate on voting day.”

ALSO READ: ANC and DA could do worse than they predict

The final results could also be influenced by the voter turnout.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa reported that over a million people had been added to the voters’ roll following the conclusion of the voter registration weekend.

This brings the total number of eligible voters to 27.4 million.

More than 77% of people who registered over the past two weekends are under 29.

ALSO READ: Nothing is certain in upcoming polls

President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to announce the election date during the State of the Nation Address on Thursday.