Ignore Ace’s power play at your own peril, experts warn

As the radical posture by ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule looks set to further provoke factional battles within the governing party, a political analyst has warned that Magashule’s threats should not be taken lightly.

In scenes reminiscent of those ahead of the 2007 Polokwane ANC conference, which saw Jacob Zuma being elected ANC president, Magashule has fired the first political salvo. The secretary-general issued a call to party branches to decide on his political future, and a threat to expose other ANC members involved in corruption.

Magashule is facing 21 fraud, corruption, and money laundering charges in the Bloemfontein Magistrate’s Court, emanating from the R255 million Free State asbestos project. He has, however, vowed that nobody would prevent him from carrying out his political responsibilities at Luthuli House party headquarters.

This goes directly against resolution by the ANC national executive committee (NEC) that members facing corruption charges should “step aside”, pending the outcome of investigations and matters against them.

President Cyril Ramaphosa in August wrote to party members that the ANC “does stand as accused number one” and the above position was adopted by the NEC – the highest decision-making body in-between national conferences.

Despite having been part of the meeting, Magashule has refused to abide by the NEC stance – saying branches, which elected him to power, were the only organs to remove him – “not individuals”.

Ace’s power play

Commenting on Magashule’s stance, which some analysts have seen as undermining Ramaphosa’s authority, independent political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga said: “It is going to be quite difficult for President Ramaphosa, because if he does not align the party towards his agenda, including an anti-corruption campaign, there will be difficulties.

“We have seen this thing happening where a mutiny arises within the ANC, pertaining to a sitting president. It is not unthinkable if a special congress, NGC or conference is called, that will be seen as a signal showing that the branches of the ANC believe that there is something urgent to attend to.

“This is quite a test of power within the ANC, which has serious implications because if the party does not see the importance of Ramaphosa’s crusade against corruption, then it will revolt against his leadership.”

University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze said: “This is a revolt against ANC members, having a clean break with corruption.

Special congress could spell disaster for Ramaphosa

“Like Jacob Zuma, Magashule is currently presenting himself as someone with a popular support within the ANC. Next year’s NGC presents uncertainties. President Ramaphosa has been trying to avoid the NGC for as long as possible.

“He is concerned that the gathering will provide a platform for his political adversaries within the ANC to mobilise for support – and he wants to deny them that opportunity.”

Wits University school of governance visiting professor Susan Booysen, said – despite Magashule’s branch mobilisation strategy – Ramaphosa continued to enjoy widespread support within the ANC.

“While during Covid-19 times, it has been difficult to gauge his support, because of there being no activities like branch general meetings, regional, and provincial conferences, branches out there still align themselves with the senior party leadership.

“KZN (KwaZulu-Natal) has been turning in favour of Ramaphosa and the Eastern Cape is not as divided as it was in the past.

“But there are still counter forces in provinces like North West,” said Booysen.

brians@citizen.co.za

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