Has Carl Niehaus outlived his usefulness for the Zuma/Magashule camp?

Umkhonto Wesizwe Military Veterans Association spokesperson Carl Niehaus may be getting ditched by the ANC’s Zuma/Magashule camp, after serving his purpose and subsequently becoming a liability.

Political experts suggest that the action against Niehaus signalled cracks within the Zuma faction, as political fortunes for party secretary-general Ace Magashule and former President Jacob Zuma began to dissipate. Furthermore, party deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte was busy repositioning herself against the faction.

North West University political analyst, Prof Andre Duvenhage, and his Unisa counterpart Prof Dirk Kotze, concurred that there was feud within the camp. Duvenhage said it was a surprise that action was being taken against Niehaus, and for ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule to distance himself from his public utterances.

On Tuesday Niehaus was served a suspension letter by ANC general manager, Febe Potgieter, asking him to state why he should not be suspended. He was taken to task for making public statements and social media posts that were “unbecoming” of someone working in the secretary-general’s office for which he received a written warning. Things came to a head when he publicly criticized Duarte.

But ANC spokesperson, Pule Mabe denied Niehaus’s suspensions

“Comrade Carl remains a member of the ANC in good standing and the matter had nothing to do with members or any other position of leadership he occupies, suffice to say it has to do with his obligations as a staff member of the ANC,” Mabe said.

Read More: Carl Niehaus set to be suspended from ANC for ‘misconduct’

Picture: Facebook

“It seems as if there is a fight in the inner circle of the Ace Magashule/Zuma Circle. It seems to me there is lot of pressure on the Magashule camp at this point in time, and without doubt the Ramaphosa strategy is starting to work,” Duvenhage said.

He said there appeared to be trouble in the Zuma/Magashule camp and it’s going to play out negatively for Carl Niehaus.

“I think in a way Carl Niehaus is becoming a liability for Magashule/Zuma camp. He played out his role, I think the sentiment is playing out against him, his strategy and most probably his approach is costing them more,” Duvenhage said.

Kotze said it was not surprising that Duarte had begun to criticize Niehaus, something that showed she was drifting away from the Magashule/Zuma faction. According to Kotze, Duarte had begun making her stance clear with her utterances and more is yet to come.

Duarte jumping ship?

“It looks like Jessie Duarte is reconsidering her position within the Magashule group and moving towards the Ramaphosa side. This is part of the political dynamics currently underway within the ANC as party elective conference looms in 2022,” Kotze said.

Kotze said by taking a stand against the rebellious Niehaus, Duarte realized that the future of the Magashule/Zuma side was uncertain and she could not remain with the faction anymore. He said anyone who associated with Niehaus could not be taken seriously in the party, and therefore it was important that Duarte decided to crack the whip.

Niehaus was notorious for his pro-Zuma stance and for making indirect anti-Ramaphosa statements through the Radical Economic Transformation grouping. He objected to Duarte’s criticism of her public statements for which he was warned several times in the past.

Kotze believes that by calling Niehaus into order, Duarte was repositioning herself to align with Ramaphosa in future. General, support for Zuma and even Magashule was dwindling and their future prospects within the ANC were not good. “Jessie is making her calculations, she sees next year appearing and is making it clear that she is not going to support them,” Kotze said.

End of the line for Niehaus?

Ironically even Magashule had distanced himself from Niehaus’s activities, despite the fact that the MK veteran was promoting his interests.

“I have observed with concern that you are involved in activities that create the impression that you act on instructions from me. Accordingly I distance myself from any and all activities which cause disunity in my name,” Magashule wrote to Niehaus recently.

Niehaus is the face and mouthpiece of the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) element within the Zuma camp, and used this platform to canvass support for former President Jacob Zuma. The grouping had indirectly and publicly criticized the Ramaphosa faction including the national executive committee (NEC) elected at Nasrec in 2017.

On the current infighting within the Zuma camp, Duvenhage said any ANC action against an individual was usually followed by an counteraction. He cited the criticism of President Cyril Ramaphosa by Brian Molefe at the Zondo Commission, and the accusations that he was implicated in state capture as being part of the fightback by the camp, as Molefe was also aligned to the Zuma camp.

ericn@citizen.co.za

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