GNU still stands – unsteadily

The ANC must bite the bullet and embrace the DA despite the pressure within its ranks from some who want to see the DA kicked out of the government of national unity (GNU), experts say.

At the same time, they suggested the DA’s threat to leave was just politicking and that the party wouldn’t abandon the GNU, even if it were reduced to just a few heads.

If GNU survives, ‘it will be fractious’

Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said rather than ditching the DA, the ANC would ultimately cave in to the demands of big business to work with the DA to ensure the GNU did not collapse.

Similarly, DA leader John Steenhuisen and his party, with its long history with big business, would probably go along with it.

“So, even if the GNU continues it’s going to be fractious, it’s going to be unsteady, it’s going to be relatively volatile.

“It really will be tested as we move towards the local government elections next year to see whether it can stand the test of time,” Silke said.

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He said the real disagreement was within the ANC, with the left faction calling for the DA to leave the GNU, while the other faction wanted a continuation of the stability that the DA brings to the GNU.

“The pressure on John Steenhuisen, Helen Zille and others is going to be immense to keep this thing alive.”

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana does not believe the GNU will collapse, even if the membership of the government is adjusted to accommodate Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA, which sided with the ANC in the budget vote last week.

Swana said the parties would not want to see the unity government disappear, even though its record was one of “only failures”.

Silke said the squabble over the budget had caused the “weakening of the glue” that held the coalition together.

More cohesive plan needed for South Africa

However, if the government did stick together, at least in the medium term, there had to be a new understanding.

“A much more cohesive plan for South Africa is necessary for this GNU to succeed; otherwise, it will go from one crisis to another, as we have seen with the budget,” Silke said.

The GNU was “a stop-gap of stability for South Africa, but it didn’t address the real need to reconfigure how the state works”.

“To go forward, it has to offer a cohesive plan of where South Africa is going to be, otherwise it will just be each minister doing his own job without overall guiding principles.”

Another analyst, Goodenough Mashego, said it was wrong of the DA to bring up issues such as the Expropriation Act, the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act or the National Health Insurance to the budget bargaining table as these were unrelated to the main issue.

‘DA can’t be opposition within government’

Passing the budget emboldened the ANC to believe it could form a minority government and govern without the DA if parties outside the GNU supported it.

“However, the ANC cannot expel the DA from the GNU. They have a standing agreement as the ANC could not form a government without the DA.

“They are in a marriage, they cannot chuck the DA out, but the DA can file a divorce. The DA’s mistake is to want to be the opposition within government,” Mashego said.

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Steenhuisen said at the weekend there is no decision yet on whether the party will stay or leave the GNU. He said despite the fight against the value-added tax increase, his party remains committed to the GNU.

“The DA also entered government to be part of government and not mere spectators. We need to be in the wheelhouse of government where we can determine the economic direction of the country, not just on the decks below.

“We don’t seek to dominate the government, we fully accept that we do not have a 51% majority. Let me be clear, we are committed to the government of national unity.”

The Sunday Times reported on Sunday that ANC chair Gwede Mantashe was “livid” and ANC chief whip Mdumiseni Ntuli had accused the party’s secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s team of “undermining” his official negotiating team during the tricky talks to get the budget passed.

Part of the reason the ANC members are upset at Mbalula’s actions is that the DA said it was given the impression this secret team represented the Presidency.

Additional reporting by Faizel Patel and Gareth Cotterell

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