Relaxed restrictions on gatherings ‘a political move before polls’

The adjusted lockdown level 1 regulations for gatherings far exceed the restrictions of the previous same level, an indication that this may have been a political move due to upcoming elections, say experts.

But this could leave the country in a tough situation.

In his latest family meeting, President Cyril Ramaphosa moved the country to lockdown level 1 from Friday, meaning bottle stores may trade at normal hours and more people can attend funerals.

It also means a dramatic increase – from 500 to 2,000 –in the permitted total for outdoor gatherings.

Despite the country coming out of what Ramaphosa said was the worst wave of Covid infections, he adjusted the alert levels due to the low infection rate.

This brought into question whether the new high numbers of permitted gatherers could be for political and campaigning reasons for the upcoming 1 November local government elections.

It was probable, especially since the government often failed to give scientific evidence to justify its decisions, said Stellenbosch University epidemiologist Dr Jo Barnes.

From Friday, indoor gatherings of 250 people has been upped to 750 and outdoor from 500 people to a much higher 2 000. During the first lockdown level 1 in September last year, restrictions were 250 indoor, 500 outdoors.

Explanations have not been given, for example, for the stipulated number of people indoors and outdoors, or how a curfew of midnight to 4am prevents infection, Barnes said.

“The government does not tell us what influences the adjustments they make and what they base it on. One time it is the same, next time, it is different.

“They don’t let us know what science and pandemic interests the levels and regulations are based on. These announcements are eroding the public’s trust in how the government takes decisions. We can’t escape the assumption that this is influenced by political and social requirements – the major one being that we are a month away from the local elections,” said Barnes.

Ramaphosa admitted campaign activities pose the greatest risk to a surge of infections. So far, only a fifth of the adult population – 8.6 million people – have been fully vaccinated.

“Every one of us – from leaders and organisers to supporters and election staff – has a responsibility to ensure the regulations are followed and all health protocols are observed during the election campaign,” the president said.

But these gatherings constitute superspreader events, giving the virus a chance to mutate to a different variant, Barnes said.

“If we are unlucky and we have a new variant coming up … we are really going to be in trouble. Even if there is no new variant, I am concerned we are creating the opportunity for this to turn into a superspreader event.”

Political analyst Levy Ndou does not entirely agree with Barnes, saying although politicians might be the beneficiaries in some cases, government’s decisions were clearly influenced by the low number of infections.

“I don’t think the government would take a decision that would put citizens in danger. If it does that, it is irresponsible…

“When the president makes announcements on any Covid related matter, it is informed by the views from experts,” he said.

Despite thousands queuing at voting stations, it’s not certain this would bring on a fourth wave, said Barnes.

“It could be sooner or later. But I am concerned the next wave may be higher than we want. More people might be affected.

“Hopefully, it will be smaller due to summer. But every time we have a wave, not only do people lose their lives and livelihoods, the country also takes a huge knock,” she said.

– rorisangk@citizen.co.za